Heightened US-Iran tensions and active naval blockade enforcement since mid-2026 remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on naval transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows have fallen sharply, with recent Kpler data showing weekly averages near 8.5 million barrels per day amid repeated tanker strikes and mine incidents, supporting crude prices above $100 per barrel and elevating energy-sector volatility measures. US Central Command assets, including carrier strike groups and destroyers, continue precision interdictions in the Gulf of Oman and southern approaches, while European “coalition of the willing” mine-countermeasure and escort units stay at high readiness but await a permissive environment. Key near-term catalysts include potential ceasefire talks, additional carrier arrivals, and any shifts in IRGC harassment patterns that could alter implied probabilities for specific national flags completing transits by year-end.