Anthropic commands an 84.5% implied probability in this LiveBench overall market through end of October due to its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which delivered strong gains in coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work subtasks that align closely with the benchmark’s monthly refreshed tasks. OpenAI’s o3-mini currently tops public snapshots at around 84.6%, yet traders appear to price in Anthropic’s momentum from iterative high-effort variants and consistent frontier positioning ahead of the next LiveBench refresh. Multiple Chinese labs and other Western players sit at far lower odds because their latest Qwen, Kimi, and Gemini entries trail in aggregate scores despite competitive subtask results. Key catalysts before resolution include any new model drops, effort-level optimizations, or benchmark updates that could reorder the narrow gaps typical among top large language models.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 8%
StepFun <1%
Moonshot <1%
$20,722 Wol.
$20,722 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
85%
OpenAI
8%
StepFun
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 8%
StepFun <1%
Moonshot <1%
$20,722 Wol.
$20,722 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,066 Wol.
85%
OpenAI
$2,990 Wol.
8%
StepFun
$445 Wol.
1%
Moonshot
$465 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$433 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$443 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$435 Wol.
1%
ByteDance
$492 Wol.
1%
Nvidia
$498 Wol.
1%
MiniMax
$471 Wol.
1%
Mistral
$459 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$386 Wol.
<1%
Meta
$481 Wol.
<1%
$411 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$494 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$481 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$492 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$445 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$431 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic commands an 84.5% implied probability in this LiveBench overall market through end of October due to its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which delivered strong gains in coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work subtasks that align closely with the benchmark’s monthly refreshed tasks. OpenAI’s o3-mini currently tops public snapshots at around 84.6%, yet traders appear to price in Anthropic’s momentum from iterative high-effort variants and consistent frontier positioning ahead of the next LiveBench refresh. Multiple Chinese labs and other Western players sit at far lower odds because their latest Qwen, Kimi, and Gemini entries trail in aggregate scores despite competitive subtask results. Key catalysts before resolution include any new model drops, effort-level optimizations, or benchmark updates that could reorder the narrow gaps typical among top large language models.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$20,722Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic commands an 84.5% implied probability in this LiveBench overall market through end of October due to its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which delivered strong gains in coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work subtasks that align closely with the benchmark’s monthly refreshed tasks. OpenAI’s o3-mini currently tops public snapshots at around 84.6%, yet traders appear to price in Anthropic’s momentum from iterative high-effort variants and consistent frontier positioning ahead of the next LiveBench refresh. Multiple Chinese labs and other Western players sit at far lower odds because their latest Qwen, Kimi, and Gemini entries trail in aggregate scores despite competitive subtask results. Key catalysts before resolution include any new model drops, effort-level optimizations, or benchmark updates that could reorder the narrow gaps typical among top large language models.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Wolumen
$20,722Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands an 84.5% implied probability in this LiveBench overall market through end of October due to its recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases, which delivered strong gains in coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work subtasks that align closely with the benchmark’s monthly refreshed tasks. OpenAI’s o3-mini currently tops public snapshots at around 84.6%, yet traders appear to price in Anthropic’s momentum from iterative high-effort variants and consistent frontier positioning ahead of the next LiveBench refresh. Multiple Chinese labs and other Western players sit at far lower odds because their latest Qwen, Kimi, and Gemini entries trail in aggregate scores despite competitive subtask results. Key catalysts before resolution include any new model drops, effort-level optimizations, or benchmark updates that could reorder the narrow gaps typical among top large language models.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania