Anthropic holds an overwhelming 81.5% implied probability because its June and July 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5, Sonnet 5, and Opus 5 have topped major benchmarks including SWE-bench Verified at 95% and strong agentic coding and reasoning scores, outpacing rivals on sustained complex tasks. These models feature 1M-token context, adaptive thinking, and verified gains in reliability and tool use that traders view as setting the current frontier. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive on breadth and cost but trails slightly in public leaderboards, while Google, Meta, and others lag further behind on the hardest evaluations. With resolution at end-September, any new model drops or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning before final trader consensus solidifies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Anthropic 82%
OpenAI 11.5%
Google 3.6%
Meta 1.3%
$178,957 Wol.
$178,957 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
82%
OpenAI
12%
4%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 82%
OpenAI 11.5%
Google 3.6%
Meta 1.3%
$178,957 Wol.
$178,957 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$19,698 Wol.
82%
OpenAI
$9,688 Wol.
12%
$8,562 Wol.
4%
Meta
$6,678 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,057 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$6,903 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$7,467 Wol.
<1%
Moonshot
$6,516 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$11,768 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$8,560 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$8,088 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,682 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$7,194 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$9,580 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$7,397 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$7,285 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$5,820 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$6,337 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$6,411 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$7,400 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$8,867 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an overwhelming 81.5% implied probability because its June and July 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5, Sonnet 5, and Opus 5 have topped major benchmarks including SWE-bench Verified at 95% and strong agentic coding and reasoning scores, outpacing rivals on sustained complex tasks. These models feature 1M-token context, adaptive thinking, and verified gains in reliability and tool use that traders view as setting the current frontier. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive on breadth and cost but trails slightly in public leaderboards, while Google, Meta, and others lag further behind on the hardest evaluations. With resolution at end-September, any new model drops or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning before final trader consensus solidifies.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$178,957Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an overwhelming 81.5% implied probability because its June and July 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5, Sonnet 5, and Opus 5 have topped major benchmarks including SWE-bench Verified at 95% and strong agentic coding and reasoning scores, outpacing rivals on sustained complex tasks. These models feature 1M-token context, adaptive thinking, and verified gains in reliability and tool use that traders view as setting the current frontier. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive on breadth and cost but trails slightly in public leaderboards, while Google, Meta, and others lag further behind on the hardest evaluations. With resolution at end-September, any new model drops or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning before final trader consensus solidifies.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$178,957Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an overwhelming 81.5% implied probability because its June and July 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5, Sonnet 5, and Opus 5 have topped major benchmarks including SWE-bench Verified at 95% and strong agentic coding and reasoning scores, outpacing rivals on sustained complex tasks. These models feature 1M-token context, adaptive thinking, and verified gains in reliability and tool use that traders view as setting the current frontier. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive on breadth and cost but trails slightly in public leaderboards, while Google, Meta, and others lag further behind on the hardest evaluations. With resolution at end-September, any new model drops or benchmark shifts could still alter positioning before final trader consensus solidifies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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