Anthropic’s recent model releases and benchmark leadership are the main factors anchoring its 77% market-implied probability for the best AI model by end of October. Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1 with upgraded agentic and coding capabilities, currently tops independent composites such as BenchAlign at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier systems. Earlier July releases of Claude Opus 5 and refinements to Fable 5 further strengthened Anthropic’s edge on coding, knowledge-work, and long-horizon agent benchmarks while maintaining competitive pricing. Traders appear to view these confirmed performance gains and rapid iteration pace as durable advantages through October, though new releases or benchmark shifts from OpenAI, Google, or others could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 12.7%
Google 8.8%
Meta 1.4%
$187,809 Wol.
$187,809 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
77%
OpenAI
13%
9%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 12.7%
Google 8.8%
Meta 1.4%
$187,809 Wol.
$187,809 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$33,524 Wol.
77%
OpenAI
$16,936 Wol.
13%
$16,229 Wol.
9%
Meta
$15,418 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$12,395 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,962 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$14,767 Wol.
<1%
Moonshot
$12,228 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$14,452 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$9,437 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$8,886 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent model releases and benchmark leadership are the main factors anchoring its 77% market-implied probability for the best AI model by end of October. Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1 with upgraded agentic and coding capabilities, currently tops independent composites such as BenchAlign at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier systems. Earlier July releases of Claude Opus 5 and refinements to Fable 5 further strengthened Anthropic’s edge on coding, knowledge-work, and long-horizon agent benchmarks while maintaining competitive pricing. Traders appear to view these confirmed performance gains and rapid iteration pace as durable advantages through October, though new releases or benchmark shifts from OpenAI, Google, or others could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Wolumen
$187,809Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent model releases and benchmark leadership are the main factors anchoring its 77% market-implied probability for the best AI model by end of October. Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1 with upgraded agentic and coding capabilities, currently tops independent composites such as BenchAlign at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier systems. Earlier July releases of Claude Opus 5 and refinements to Fable 5 further strengthened Anthropic’s edge on coding, knowledge-work, and long-horizon agent benchmarks while maintaining competitive pricing. Traders appear to view these confirmed performance gains and rapid iteration pace as durable advantages through October, though new releases or benchmark shifts from OpenAI, Google, or others could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$187,809Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent model releases and benchmark leadership are the main factors anchoring its 77% market-implied probability for the best AI model by end of October. Claude Fable 5.1, launched September 1 with upgraded agentic and coding capabilities, currently tops independent composites such as BenchAlign at 82.95, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other frontier systems. Earlier July releases of Claude Opus 5 and refinements to Fable 5 further strengthened Anthropic’s edge on coding, knowledge-work, and long-horizon agent benchmarks while maintaining competitive pricing. Traders appear to view these confirmed performance gains and rapid iteration pace as durable advantages through October, though new releases or benchmark shifts from OpenAI, Google, or others could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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