Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models anchor trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August 2026. Multiple independent leaderboards, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchLM, currently rank these releases at the top for reasoning, agentic workflows, coding on SWE-bench variants, and overall capability, following their July launches with strong benchmark gains over prior versions. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and recent xAI Grok updates remain competitive on select metrics but trail in composite scores and human-preference arenas. With resolution just two weeks away, limited time remains for competitors to ship meaningful upgrades that could close the gap, though an unexpected post-training refresh or new benchmark release favoring another lab represents the primary risk to the current positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has best AI model end of August?
Which company has best AI model end of August?
Anthropic 96.7%
OpenAI 2.2%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,782,608 Wol.
$1,782,608 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.7%
OpenAI 2.2%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,782,608 Wol.
$1,782,608 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$364,671 Wol.
97%
OpenAI
$151,982 Wol.
2%
$137,296 Wol.
1%
Meta
$144,940 Wol.
<1%
Alibaba
$136,223 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$146,597 Wol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$149,193 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$221,941 Wol.
<1%
Moonshot
$108,007 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Wol.
<1%
Bytedance
$103,190 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models anchor trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August 2026. Multiple independent leaderboards, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchLM, currently rank these releases at the top for reasoning, agentic workflows, coding on SWE-bench variants, and overall capability, following their July launches with strong benchmark gains over prior versions. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and recent xAI Grok updates remain competitive on select metrics but trail in composite scores and human-preference arenas. With resolution just two weeks away, limited time remains for competitors to ship meaningful upgrades that could close the gap, though an unexpected post-training refresh or new benchmark release favoring another lab represents the primary risk to the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,782,608Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models anchor trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August 2026. Multiple independent leaderboards, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchLM, currently rank these releases at the top for reasoning, agentic workflows, coding on SWE-bench variants, and overall capability, following their July launches with strong benchmark gains over prior versions. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and recent xAI Grok updates remain competitive on select metrics but trail in composite scores and human-preference arenas. With resolution just two weeks away, limited time remains for competitors to ship meaningful upgrades that could close the gap, though an unexpected post-training refresh or new benchmark release favoring another lab represents the primary risk to the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$1,782,608Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models anchor trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August 2026. Multiple independent leaderboards, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchLM, currently rank these releases at the top for reasoning, agentic workflows, coding on SWE-bench variants, and overall capability, following their July launches with strong benchmark gains over prior versions. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and recent xAI Grok updates remain competitive on select metrics but trail in composite scores and human-preference arenas. With resolution just two weeks away, limited time remains for competitors to ship meaningful upgrades that could close the gap, though an unexpected post-training refresh or new benchmark release favoring another lab represents the primary risk to the current positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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