Anthropic's early September launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which posted top scores on coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench 4.0 and agentic evaluations such as Humanity’s Last Exam, underpins the 75% market-implied odds for the company holding the leading AI model by end of October. These releases built on prior Opus 5 gains in SWE-bench and knowledge tasks while offering improved price-performance and enterprise controls, reinforcing trader consensus on sustained frontier positioning. OpenAI’s concurrent GPT-6 Astra rollout and claims of regained leadership have not shifted odds materially, as recent independent indexes still rank Anthropic models ahead on key metrics. With resolution roughly six weeks away, further model updates or benchmark shifts from Google, Meta, or others represent the main variables that could alter current sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 76%
OpenAI 12.4%
Meta 7.8%
Google 6.8%
$20,935 Wol.
$20,935 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
OpenAI
12%
Meta
9%
8%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 76%
OpenAI 12.4%
Meta 7.8%
Google 6.8%
$20,935 Wol.
$20,935 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$12,735 Wol.
76%
OpenAI
$695 Wol.
12%
Meta
$468 Wol.
9%
$539 Wol.
8%
Moonshot
$438 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$446 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$406 Wol.
1%
Baidu
$246 Wol.
1%
ByteDance
$382 Wol.
1%
MiniMax
$409 Wol.
1%
Thinky
$375 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$366 Wol.
1%
Nvidia
$371 Wol.
1%
Tencent
$366 Wol.
1%
Microsoft
$364 Wol.
1%
StepFun
$367 Wol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$328 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$371 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$502 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$388 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$372 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's early September launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which posted top scores on coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench 4.0 and agentic evaluations such as Humanity’s Last Exam, underpins the 75% market-implied odds for the company holding the leading AI model by end of October. These releases built on prior Opus 5 gains in SWE-bench and knowledge tasks while offering improved price-performance and enterprise controls, reinforcing trader consensus on sustained frontier positioning. OpenAI’s concurrent GPT-6 Astra rollout and claims of regained leadership have not shifted odds materially, as recent independent indexes still rank Anthropic models ahead on key metrics. With resolution roughly six weeks away, further model updates or benchmark shifts from Google, Meta, or others represent the main variables that could alter current sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$20,935Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's early September launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which posted top scores on coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench 4.0 and agentic evaluations such as Humanity’s Last Exam, underpins the 75% market-implied odds for the company holding the leading AI model by end of October. These releases built on prior Opus 5 gains in SWE-bench and knowledge tasks while offering improved price-performance and enterprise controls, reinforcing trader consensus on sustained frontier positioning. OpenAI’s concurrent GPT-6 Astra rollout and claims of regained leadership have not shifted odds materially, as recent independent indexes still rank Anthropic models ahead on key metrics. With resolution roughly six weeks away, further model updates or benchmark shifts from Google, Meta, or others represent the main variables that could alter current sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$20,935Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's early September launch of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which posted top scores on coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench 4.0 and agentic evaluations such as Humanity’s Last Exam, underpins the 75% market-implied odds for the company holding the leading AI model by end of October. These releases built on prior Opus 5 gains in SWE-bench and knowledge tasks while offering improved price-performance and enterprise controls, reinforcing trader consensus on sustained frontier positioning. OpenAI’s concurrent GPT-6 Astra rollout and claims of regained leadership have not shifted odds materially, as recent independent indexes still rank Anthropic models ahead on key metrics. With resolution roughly six weeks away, further model updates or benchmark shifts from Google, Meta, or others represent the main variables that could alter current sentiment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania