Anthropic's commanding 96.5% market-implied probability reflects recent benchmark leadership from its latest Claude model release, which demonstrated superior performance on style-controlled evaluations measuring creative consistency, instruction adherence, and output quality compared with rivals. Traders cite verified capability gaps in large language model reasoning and safety features that have held through mid-August 2026 testing, reinforced by consistent third-party evaluations and the absence of comparable updates from OpenAI or Google. With resolution days away, the tight timeline limits realistic challengers to last-minute model drops meeting strict criteria, though unexpected regulatory shifts or undisclosed capability leaps could still alter the outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has #1 AI model end of August? (Style Control On)
Which company has #1 AI model end of August? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 96.5%
OpenAI 2.2%
Google 1.2%
Bytedance <1%
$25,539 Wol.
$25,539 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
2%
1%
Bytedance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meta
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.5%
OpenAI 2.2%
Google 1.2%
Bytedance <1%
$25,539 Wol.
$25,539 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,928 Wol.
97%
OpenAI
$2,845 Wol.
2%
$2,058 Wol.
1%
Bytedance
$608 Wol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,013 Wol.
1%
Meta
$1,290 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$718 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$690 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$721 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,181 Wol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,871 Wol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,136 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$459 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$908 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$330 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$939 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$330 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$774 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$344 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$891 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$505 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 96.5% market-implied probability reflects recent benchmark leadership from its latest Claude model release, which demonstrated superior performance on style-controlled evaluations measuring creative consistency, instruction adherence, and output quality compared with rivals. Traders cite verified capability gaps in large language model reasoning and safety features that have held through mid-August 2026 testing, reinforced by consistent third-party evaluations and the absence of comparable updates from OpenAI or Google. With resolution days away, the tight timeline limits realistic challengers to last-minute model drops meeting strict criteria, though unexpected regulatory shifts or undisclosed capability leaps could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$25,539Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 96.5% market-implied probability reflects recent benchmark leadership from its latest Claude model release, which demonstrated superior performance on style-controlled evaluations measuring creative consistency, instruction adherence, and output quality compared with rivals. Traders cite verified capability gaps in large language model reasoning and safety features that have held through mid-August 2026 testing, reinforced by consistent third-party evaluations and the absence of comparable updates from OpenAI or Google. With resolution days away, the tight timeline limits realistic challengers to last-minute model drops meeting strict criteria, though unexpected regulatory shifts or undisclosed capability leaps could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$25,539Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's commanding 96.5% market-implied probability reflects recent benchmark leadership from its latest Claude model release, which demonstrated superior performance on style-controlled evaluations measuring creative consistency, instruction adherence, and output quality compared with rivals. Traders cite verified capability gaps in large language model reasoning and safety features that have held through mid-August 2026 testing, reinforced by consistent third-party evaluations and the absence of comparable updates from OpenAI or Google. With resolution days away, the tight timeline limits realistic challengers to last-minute model drops meeting strict criteria, though unexpected regulatory shifts or undisclosed capability leaps could still alter the outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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