$24,683,706 Wol.
do 30 czerwca 2026 roku
$19,900,129 Wol.
<1%
do 31 grudnia 2026 roku
$2,449,008 Wol.
7%
$24,683,706 Wol.
do 30 czerwca 2026 roku
<1%
do 31 grudnia 2026 roku
7%
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2025, 12:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...Bitcoin trades near $62,000 amid mixed market sentiment and regulatory progress
By early June 2026, Bitcoin traded around $62,000 with mixed market sentiment. Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption continued to influence price, but bearish technical indicators and macro uncertainties kept probabilities for $150k low.
Bitcoin Plunges Toward $60,000 as AI Boom Drains Capital from Crypto Markets
Analysts and prominent maximalists noted that massive capital rotation into artificial intelligence infrastructure and tech equities drained vital liquidity from Bitcoin, driving its price down.
Bitcoin market slumps amid continued ETF outflows and broader crypto sell-off
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
On June 4, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin fell sharply amid ongoing ETF outflows and market-wide declines, pushing Bitcoin prices toward key support levels and dampening short-term bullish momentum.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs see 13 consecutive days of net outflows totaling $4.4 billion
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
By early June 2026, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record 13-day streak of net outflows totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This sustained selling pressure contributed to Bitcoin's price decline and dampened short-term bullish expectations.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs experience record 13-day outflow streak totaling $4.4 billion
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw continuous net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This unprecedented outflow coincided with a nearly 20% Bitcoin price decline since mid-May, exerting significant downward pressure on the market.
Sudden $2 trillion crypto price crash sparks Bitcoin panic and extreme fear
by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%1%
A steep selloff in early June 2026 pushed Bitcoin below $70,000, intensifying market fear and volatility. This crash was exacerbated by large institutional sell-offs and ETF redemptions, further reducing confidence in a near-term $150k price target and lowering the probability of reaching it by June 30.
Bitcoin Slumps Below $70,000 Following Strategy's Token Sale and ETF Outflows
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%
Bitcoin fell below the key $70,000 threshold for the first time since April as the market reacted to Strategy's divestment and accelerating institutional outflows.
Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000 as Massive May ETF Outflows and Saylor Selling Rumors Spook Traders
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
Bitcoin fell to its lowest open since April as institutions closed May with the largest monthly ETF outflows of the year, combined with social media panic over MicroStrategy selling.
Long-term funds quietly accumulate Bitcoin at $72K
by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
On June 2, 2026, reports indicated that long-term funds were accumulating Bitcoin via OTC trades around $72,000, viewing current prices as strategic for an 18-month horizon. This accumulation suggested some confidence in Bitcoin's medium-term prospects despite short-term bearish trends.
Michael Saylor's Strategy Discloses First Net Bitcoin Sale in Four Years to Fund Dividends
by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Strategy filed an 8-K showing it sold 32 bitcoins for $2.5 million to fund dividend payments, triggering a psychological shock and a sharp sell-off across the crypto market.
Crypto treasury company Strategy sells Bitcoin for first time in over three years
by June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Strategy, a major Bitcoin holder, sold 32 BTC valued at approximately $2.47 million, marking its first sale in over three years. This move intensified market sell-off pressure and contributed to declining Bitcoin prices and bearish sentiment in early June.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs experience largest monthly outflow of 2026
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%
Bitcoin spot ETFs closed May with $2.30 billion in net outflows, the steepest since November 2025, contributing to price pressure and a decline in market confidence heading into June.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see $2 billion outflows, pressuring sentiment
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
By late May 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced nearly $2 billion in combined withdrawals, reflecting institutional selling pressure. This outflow contributed to bearish market sentiment and reduced confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150k by mid-2026.
Bitcoin price falls below $73,000 triggering heavy liquidations
by June 30, 2026 drops to 1%8%
On May 28, 2026, Bitcoin broke below the $73,000 support level, causing nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations, with Bitcoin leading at about $386 million. This liquidation cascade intensified selling pressure and contributed to a sharp price decline into early June.
Bitcoin crashes below $77K triggering major liquidation and ETF outflows
by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Bitcoin's price fell below the critical $77,000 support level on May 18, 2026, causing a $657 million liquidation event and significant ETF outflows, reflecting waning institutional demand and increased market volatility, which dampened short-term prospects for hitting $150k by June 30.
Clarity Act Regulation Bill Clears Crucial US Senate Hurdle
The US Senate advanced the Clarity Act, a major legislative milestone aimed at establishing federal oversight and unlocking large-scale institutional and pension fund demand.
Crypto industry wins as Clarity Act clears Senate hurdle
by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
On May 14, 2026, the Clarity Act regulation bill passed a Senate hurdle, signaling progress in establishing a federal regulatory framework for crypto assets including Bitcoin. This development was seen as a positive step for investor protection but added regulatory clarity that influenced market expectations for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Analyst predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 before end of 2026
An influential market analyst publicly forecasted Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing supply constraints post-halving and strong institutional ETF inflows as key drivers. This bolstered bullish sentiment for the year-end target but did not immediately impact short-term price.
Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle predicts $150K target by year-end 2026
Analysts highlighted Bitcoin's historical 4-year halving cycle as a key driver for a $150,000 price target by the end of 2026, reinforcing market expectations despite recent volatility and price corrections. This cyclical view supported the longer-term December 31, 2026 outcome over the nearer June 30 target.
U.S. Senate committee to consider long-awaited crypto regulatory bill
by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
The U.S. Senate scheduled consideration of the Clarity Act, a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, potentially resolving legislative deadlock and influencing market confidence in Bitcoin's future price trajectory.
Bitcoin Wallet Count Declines at Fastest Rate in Nearly Two Years
by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
On-chain data revealed that retail traders rapidly took profits as Bitcoin hovered around $79,000, leading to a loss of 245,000 active wallets in just five days.
Consensus 2026 conference held in Miami with strong institutional participation
by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
The large-scale crypto industry event attracted tens of thousands of participants, boosting institutional interest and market optimism, which supported Bitcoin's price recovery attempts in early May.
Sudden Bitcoin price surge fuels $16 trillion crypto market supercycle prediction
by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Bitcoin's price rally alongside stock markets and reports of China secretly stockpiling Bitcoin sparked predictions of a $16 trillion crypto market supercycle, boosting confidence in Bitcoin's growth potential and supporting the $150,000 target by year-end.
Bitcoin price reaches $76,342 amid bullish momentum and institutional interest
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Bitcoin's price surged to $76,342 on April 28, 2026, fueled by positive market sentiment and growing institutional adoption, supporting optimism for a potential rally toward $150,000 by year-end. This surge reflected confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value despite ongoing market volatility.
Trump administration finalizes design for U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
In late April 2026, the Trump administration confirmed plans to finalize a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within two months. This initiative to accumulate Bitcoin through seized assets or agency fees was seen as a potential bullish catalyst but had limited immediate impact on short-term price probabilities.
Bitcoin trades near $78,000 ahead of major Fed meeting and peace talks
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Bitcoin held steady near $78,000 as investors awaited key Federal Reserve decisions and geopolitical developments, indicating cautious optimism but no immediate breakout toward $150K.
Bitcoin rallies above $79,000 supported by Michael Saylor's buying strategy
Bitcoin's price climbed about 15% in April 2026, crossing above $79,000, partly fueled by Michael Saylor's firm Strategy's Bitcoin acquisitions funded by preferred share sales, temporarily boosting market optimism.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Pull Record $2.44 Billion in April Inflows Led by BlackRock
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
An eight-day consecutive inflow streak from April 14 to April 23 brought $2.1 billion into spot ETFs, marking the strongest month of inflows in 2026 and temporarily supporting bullish sentiment.
U.S. lawmakers revise crypto tax policy referencing GENIUS Act
On April 14, 2026, U.S. lawmakers updated crypto tax policy discussions, specifically referencing the GENIUS Act which regulates stablecoins but does not extend exemptions to Bitcoin. This highlighted ongoing regulatory scrutiny, contributing to bearish sentiment for Bitcoin's short-term price targets.
US CPI data triggers volatility in Bitcoin prices
The release of US Consumer Price Index data caused significant intraday volatility in Bitcoin prices, reflecting sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators and influencing short-term market sentiment.
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses Oil Prices and Triggers Crypto Short Squeeze
A temporary two-week ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran crashed crude oil prices, shifting interest rate expectations and triggering a massive $427 million liquidation of crypto short positions.
Bitcoin Core v31 upgrade released with improved transaction privacy
The major node software upgrade improved fee efficiency and transaction privacy, signaling ongoing technological progress and community commitment to Bitcoin's long-term security, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Bitcoin Slipped to $69,000 as Middle East Conflict Hits Energy Infrastructure
Escalating geopolitical tensions and attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure drove oil prices back toward $100, stoking inflation fears and dragging down risk assets including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price rebounds to near one-month high around $74,000
By mid-March 2026, Bitcoin showed signs of recovery, rising to about $74,000, helped by falling oil prices and improved sentiment, but still well below $150,000, keeping probabilities low for hitting $150k by mid-2026.
20 millionth Bitcoin mined, marking a key supply milestone
The mining of the 20 millionth Bitcoin highlighted Bitcoin's programmed scarcity, reinforcing bullish long-term price expectations and supporting the outlook for hitting $150K by year-end. This event underscored the supply-side catalyst amid fiscal uncertainty.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Bitcoin surges above $116,000
by June 30, 2026 surges to 23%19%
The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in years lowered borrowing costs and boosted liquidity, triggering a sharp Bitcoin price surge above $116,000 and renewed optimism about crypto market upside amid easing monetary policy.
Bitcoin price hits low near $68,000 amid market correction
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%20%
Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin underwent a significant correction into early 2026, with prices dropping near $68,000, reflecting market uncertainty and profit-taking after a strong rally.
Bitcoin price hits low near $67,000 amid market selloff
by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Bitcoin's price dropped below $67,000 in late February 2026, reflecting investor caution and contributing to the near collapse of odds for hitting $150,000 by mid-2026 in prediction markets.
Bernstein and other analysts maintain $150K Bitcoin target for 2026
Despite recent price weakness, Bernstein and other analysts reaffirmed a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by end-2026, citing institutional flows and whale accumulation, supporting a moderate bullish outlook.
Bitcoin suffers 50% correction from October 2025 peak, recovery timeline uncertain
by June 30, 2026 drops to 11%7%
Bitcoin declined roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 to about $66,000 by February 2026, marking one of the steepest corrections since the FTX collapse. This sharp pullback shifted market sentiment from euphoria to fear, lowering short-term expectations for hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.
Standard Chartered Warns of Potential Bitcoin Slide to $50,000
Standard Chartered cut its 2026 Bitcoin price projection to $150,000 and warned of a potential bottom of $50,000, fueling extreme fear and driving down prediction market odds.
Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 on Speculation of US Strategic Reserve
Bitcoin's spot price recovered strongly from its recent dip, bolstered by intensifying rumors that the US might formalize a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
Bitcoin price drops below $80,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty
by June 30, 2026 drops to 7%7%
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and risk-off sentiment. This decline further reduced confidence in a mid-2026 $150,000 price target, pushing market odds lower for that outcome.
Bitcoin suffers steep one-day decline amid orderly deleveraging and market volatility
by December 31, 2026 drops to 12%5%
Bitcoin tumbled more than 10% in a single day, marking one of its fastest crashes historically, driven by significant deleveraging in futures markets and heightened volatility. Despite the sharp drop, analysts described the move as orderly without systemic failure, signaling a cautious market environment.
Bitcoin price drops sharply amid broader market selloff
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
Bitcoin experienced a sharp price drop in early February 2026, falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, reflecting a typical post-bull cycle correction and reducing confidence in near-term $150k targets.
Bitcoin falls below $74,000 amid tech sector sell-off and AI jitters
by December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
A renewed sell-off in technology stocks, especially software companies, weighed on Bitcoin and crypto miners linked to AI infrastructure, causing Bitcoin to slide below $74,000. This reflected broader market risk aversion and contributed to Bitcoin's price decline in early February.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $545 Million in Net Outflows as Price Tumbles
by December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
Significant institutional outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and massive liquidations across major exchanges triggered a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price, dragging down prediction market odds.
Fed signals delayed interest rate cuts, dampening crypto risk appetite
by June 30, 2026 drops to 5%7%
The Federal Reserve's indication of postponed rate cuts increased monetary policy uncertainty, reducing risk appetite and institutional flows into crypto, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price probabilities for mid-2026.
Bitcoin price correction to around $70,000 dampens short-term optimism
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
Bitcoin corrected roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, falling below $70,000 by early 2026, which contributed to reduced market confidence in hitting $150,000 within the first half of 2026.
SEC issues statement clarifying taxonomy of tokenized securities
The SEC's statement on tokenized securities taxonomy provided regulatory clarity, which was expected to support institutional adoption and market confidence, though immediate price impact was limited amid broader bearish trends.
Bitcoin plunges to fresh 2026 low amid bearish factors and U.S. government shutdown fears
by December 31, 2026 dips to 22%4%
Bitcoin dropped to around $86,400 as multiple bearish factors converged, including the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which increased market risk aversion and pressured Bitcoin prices downward.
Senate Committee advances digital asset oversight framework bill
The Senate's progress on a bipartisan crypto market structure bill aimed to clarify regulatory jurisdiction and consumer protections, signaling potential future regulatory clarity that could impact Bitcoin's institutional adoption and price dynamics.
Analysts revise Bitcoin 2026 price forecasts downward amid market correction
by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%7%
In early 2026, analysts including Standard Chartered and Bernstein lowered Bitcoin price forecasts to around $150,000, citing market corrections and regulatory factors, dampening short-term bullish sentiment.
Bernstein and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin rebound to $150,000 by year-end 2026
by December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Bernstein and Standard Chartered both forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing institutional flows and ETF buying as key drivers despite recent price corrections. This reinforced the market's adjusted expectations for the $150k target by year-end rather than mid-year.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein revise Bitcoin price forecasts to $150k for 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%9%
Major financial institutions Standard Chartered and Bernstein cut their Bitcoin price targets to $150,000 for 2026, down from previous higher forecasts. This adjustment reflected market realities after the 2025 price decline and tempered expectations for rapid price appreciation within the year.
Standard Chartered Slashes 2026 Bitcoin Price Target to $150,000
Standard Chartered analysts reduced their Bitcoin price target for 2026 from $300,000 to $150,000, citing expectations of less aggressive buying from Digital Asset Treasury companies.
Epoch Ventures predicts Bitcoin will hit $150K by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Epoch Ventures forecasted Bitcoin reaching at least $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing steady ETF inflows and corporate adoption, signaling a shift to gradual growth rather than volatile cycles.
Bitcoin price recovery fragile despite recent gains in early 2026
by June 30, 2026 drops to 13%5%
Despite Bitcoin's price climbing after December lows, analysts described the recovery as fragile, with volatility and cautious investor sentiment persisting. This tempered expectations for a rapid rise to $150,000 within the first half of 2026.
Strong start to 2026 with Bitcoin and crypto markets rallying on ETF inflows
by June 30, 2026 rises to 18%4%
Bitcoin and broader crypto markets began 2026 strongly, buoyed by fresh new-year allocations and significant inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs. This renewed institutional interest supported a cautious but constructive market reset.
Tom Lee predicts new Bitcoin all-time high by end of January 2026
by June 30, 2026 rises to 18%4%
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors forecasted that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by the end of January 2026, signaling potential bullish momentum despite recent volatility and market corrections.
January 2026 ETF inflow reversal lifts Bitcoin 7.7 % to $93.8K
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
Four‑day net inflow of $385.9 M into spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock and Fidelity) reversed a $1.5 B outflow streak, pushing Bitcoin up 7.7 % to $93,816 and nudging the probability of the “by‑June‑30” outcome higher.
Bitcoin rises above $90,000 amid positive market sentiment and AI infrastructure optimism
On the first trading day of 2026, Bitcoin climbed above $90,000, buoyed by gains in crypto miners pivoting to AI infrastructure and anticipation of CME Group launching bitcoin volatility futures. This optimism supported a bullish technical outlook and raised hopes for a price breakout.
Bitcoin price closes 2025 at $88,445 amid market cap of $2.15 trillion
by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
Bitcoin ended 2025 trading around $88,445, reflecting a significant decline from its October peak but showing a strong floor. This price level influenced market expectations for Bitcoin's trajectory into 2026.
U.S. Congress enacts GENIUS Act, establishing federal stablecoin framework
The GENIUS Act provided regulatory clarity by assigning stablecoin oversight to banking regulators, reducing uncertainty and signaling U.S. commitment to regulated digital assets, which helped stabilize market sentiment despite unresolved crypto market structure issues.
MicroStrategy sells part of Bitcoin holdings for tax purposes
by December 31, 2026 drops to 30%7%
MicroStrategy sold 704 BTC for about $11.8 million in late December 2025, signaling cautious corporate behavior amid market volatility. This sale contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin prices during the period.
US crypto industry celebrates major regulatory wins under Trump administration
by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
The Trump administration's pro-crypto policies, including easing bank rules and approving crypto products, helped propel Bitcoin to new peaks in 2025 and laid groundwork for wider adoption, though concerns about systemic risks remain.
SEC issues no-action letter for Depository Trust Company blockchain pilot
by December 31, 2026 rises to 33%1%
The SEC's no-action letter allowing the Depository Trust Company to pilot tokenizing assets on blockchain signaled regulatory openness, boosting market confidence and temporarily supporting Bitcoin price prospects.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150k by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
Standard Chartered revised down its Bitcoin price forecast from $200k to $150k by the end of 2026, reflecting increased bearish sentiment due to market volatility and regulatory uncertainties, contributing to declining market probabilities.
Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin forecast to $150K by 2026
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%22%
Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin price target to $150 K by 2026, down from a previous $300 K. The downgrade signalled a more modest outlook, prompting a short‑term pullback that coincides with the drop from 33 % on Dec 6 to 11 % on Feb 11 (by‑December‑31 outcome).
BlackRock’s IBIT draws $120 M inflows, Bitcoin jumps 8 %
by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust logged $120 M of net inflows, driving an 8 % jump that lifted the price from 31 % on Dec 28 to 27 % on Jan 8 (by‑December‑31 outcome). The inflow spike reversed earlier outflows and steadied the market.
Digital Asset Treasury companies face valuation challenges amid crypto price plunge
by June 30, 2026 drops to 32%13%
The plunge in crypto prices hurt valuations of Digital Asset Treasury companies, undermining their ability to support Bitcoin buying, leading to market consolidation and reduced price support in early 2026.
Standard Chartered halves Bitcoin price forecast to $150k by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 26%8%
Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price forecast downward from $300,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2026, reflecting the market's underperformance and increased macroeconomic uncertainties.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150K by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 34%5%
Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price target downward from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid market volatility and macroeconomic concerns, dampening bullish sentiment.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150,000 for 2026
by June 30, 2026 drops to 20%5%
Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price forecast downward from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting the significant price correction and changing macroeconomic conditions. This downgrade dampened market expectations for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.
Bitcoin surges above $90,000 amid Federal Reserve rate cut expectations
by December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
Growing anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in December 2025 boosted investor confidence, driving Bitcoin prices above $90,000 and sparking a risk-on rally despite recent volatility and market disruptions like the CME outage.
Bitcoin price drops below $81,000 amid risk-off market sentiment
by June 30, 2026 drops to 34%5%
On November 21, Bitcoin's price fell sharply to $80,659 as part of a broader risk-off sentiment in the markets, reflecting investor caution and contributing to the ongoing price decline in late 2025.
Bitcoin ETFs see $869 million outflow amid price caution
by June 30, 2026 dips to 39%3%
On November 13, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a massive $869 million outflow as investors reacted to Bitcoin's price dropping below $100,000, intensifying the market sell-off and contributing to further price declines.
Bitcoin ETFs attract $524 M inflows, BlackRock leads with $224 M
by June 30, 2026 drops to 16%5%
Spot Bitcoin ETFs received $524 M of net inflows, led by BlackRock’s $224 M, which helped lift Bitcoin from 21 % on Dec 8 to 16 % on Dec 19 (by‑June‑30 outcome). The surge gave fresh institutional support after a period of outflows.
Bitcoin price correction begins after October peak
by June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%17%
Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin experienced a correction with prices declining significantly through November and December, reducing market confidence in hitting $150k by mid-2026.
Morgan Stanley signals Bitcoin entering 'autumn' phase of cycle, advising profit-taking
by December 31, 2026 drops to 40%12%
Morgan Stanley strategist warned that Bitcoin was entering a late cycle phase, suggesting an impending bear market and prompting investors to lock in profits, contributing to price declines in late 2025.
Bitcoin spot ETFs experience significant outflows, signaling reduced market confidence
by June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%21%
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $3.48 billion in outflows in November 2025, followed by additional outflows in December and January 2026, indicating institutional investors reducing exposure. This contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin prices and diminished near-term confidence in reaching $150k by mid-2026.
Bitcoin ETF outflows and liquidity crunch weigh on price in late 2025
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%15%
Record outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs and a liquidity crunch in late 2025 contributed to Bitcoin breaking key support levels and retesting lows, reflecting increased market caution and volatility.
Bitcoin market crash triggered by macro stress and liquidity event
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 39%23%
On October 10, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sharp crash due to a liquidity event triggered by macroeconomic stress, trade-war fears, and crowded positioning, causing a significant price drop and market volatility.
MSCI proposes reclassification of Digital Asset Treasury companies, triggering market concerns
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 38%22%
MSCI's consultation to reclassify companies holding large Bitcoin assets as fund-like vehicles threatened index exclusions, undermining a major marginal buyer group and contributing to a sharp market crash and sustained price weakness.
Bitcoin hits new all-time high above $126,000 amid ETF inflows
by December 31, 2026 jumps to 66%6%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,198 on October 6, 2025, driven by strong institutional demand and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting bullish market sentiment.
Bitcoin hits all-time high above $126,000
by December 31, 2026 rises to 64%4%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,198 in early October 2025, reflecting strong ETF inflows and growing long-term allocation by large funds. This peak marked the height of bullish sentiment before a significant correction.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, boosting Bitcoin risk appetite
by June 30, 2026 plunges to 58%15%
The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 bps, a dovish move that historically lifts risk assets. Bitcoin rose about 3 % the next day, helping the swing from 73 % on Aug 18 to 58 % on Aug 29 (by‑June‑30 outcome).
Whale selling pressure caps Bitcoin price near $113k resistance
by December 31, 2026 dips to 60%2%
Nakamoto CEO David Bailey highlighted that two massive whale sellers were suppressing Bitcoin's price, preventing it from reaching $150k. This selling pressure created an artificial ceiling, causing market skepticism and lowering short-term probabilities.
Nakamoto CEO predicts $150K Bitcoin once two whales finish selling
by June 30, 2026 surges to 76%25%
Nakamoto CEO David Bailey said Bitcoin was held back by two massive whales and would surge 36% to $150 K once they finished selling. The comment reinforced the narrative that whale liquidation was capping price, contributing to the rise from 51 % on Aug 7 to a peak of 76 % on Aug 13 (by‑June‑30 outcome).
Federal Reserve signals start of interest rate cuts, briefly boosting Bitcoin
by December 31, 2026 rises to 63%4%
On August 23, the Federal Reserve indicated it would begin lowering interest rates, prompting a brief Bitcoin rally. However, this was followed by another price drop, continuing the pattern of volatility through August and September.
Bitcoin peaks near $126,000, igniting market optimism
by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high around $126,000 in October 2025, driven by strong institutional accumulation and ETF inflows, which initially boosted market confidence in hitting $150,000 soon after.
Bitcoin surges past $120,000 amid strong institutional ETF inflows
by December 31, 2026 surges to 75%24%
Bitcoin reached new highs above $120,000 in early August 2025, fueled by robust inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional adoption, boosting market confidence in a $150k target by 2026.
Bitcoin price surges amid ETF approvals and institutional optimism
by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%9%
Early August 2025 saw Bitcoin prices rise due to the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and strong institutional demand, boosting market confidence and raising the probability of hitting $150k by year-end.
Bitcoin trading above $100,000 amid optimistic price forecasts
by June 30, 2026 jumps to 64%13%
In early August 2025, Bitcoin was trading above $100,000, supported by bullish forecasts predicting prices around $150,000 by summer 2025. This optimism was driven by expectations of increased institutional adoption and ETF inflows, boosting market confidence.
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...Bitcoin trades near $62,000 amid mixed market sentiment and regulatory progress
By early June 2026, Bitcoin traded around $62,000 with mixed market sentiment. Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption continued to influence price, but bearish technical indicators and macro uncertainties kept probabilities for $150k low.
Bitcoin Plunges Toward $60,000 as AI Boom Drains Capital from Crypto Markets
Analysts and prominent maximalists noted that massive capital rotation into artificial intelligence infrastructure and tech equities drained vital liquidity from Bitcoin, driving its price down.
Bitcoin market slumps amid continued ETF outflows and broader crypto sell-off
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
On June 4, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin fell sharply amid ongoing ETF outflows and market-wide declines, pushing Bitcoin prices toward key support levels and dampening short-term bullish momentum.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs see 13 consecutive days of net outflows totaling $4.4 billion
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
By early June 2026, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record 13-day streak of net outflows totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This sustained selling pressure contributed to Bitcoin's price decline and dampened short-term bullish expectations.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs experience record 13-day outflow streak totaling $4.4 billion
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw continuous net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion. This unprecedented outflow coincided with a nearly 20% Bitcoin price decline since mid-May, exerting significant downward pressure on the market.
Sudden $2 trillion crypto price crash sparks Bitcoin panic and extreme fear
by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%1%
A steep selloff in early June 2026 pushed Bitcoin below $70,000, intensifying market fear and volatility. This crash was exacerbated by large institutional sell-offs and ETF redemptions, further reducing confidence in a near-term $150k price target and lowering the probability of reaching it by June 30.
Bitcoin Slumps Below $70,000 Following Strategy's Token Sale and ETF Outflows
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%
Bitcoin fell below the key $70,000 threshold for the first time since April as the market reacted to Strategy's divestment and accelerating institutional outflows.
Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000 as Massive May ETF Outflows and Saylor Selling Rumors Spook Traders
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
Bitcoin fell to its lowest open since April as institutions closed May with the largest monthly ETF outflows of the year, combined with social media panic over MicroStrategy selling.
Long-term funds quietly accumulate Bitcoin at $72K
by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
On June 2, 2026, reports indicated that long-term funds were accumulating Bitcoin via OTC trades around $72,000, viewing current prices as strategic for an 18-month horizon. This accumulation suggested some confidence in Bitcoin's medium-term prospects despite short-term bearish trends.
Michael Saylor's Strategy Discloses First Net Bitcoin Sale in Four Years to Fund Dividends
by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Strategy filed an 8-K showing it sold 32 bitcoins for $2.5 million to fund dividend payments, triggering a psychological shock and a sharp sell-off across the crypto market.
Crypto treasury company Strategy sells Bitcoin for first time in over three years
by June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Strategy, a major Bitcoin holder, sold 32 BTC valued at approximately $2.47 million, marking its first sale in over three years. This move intensified market sell-off pressure and contributed to declining Bitcoin prices and bearish sentiment in early June.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs experience largest monthly outflow of 2026
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%2%
Bitcoin spot ETFs closed May with $2.30 billion in net outflows, the steepest since November 2025, contributing to price pressure and a decline in market confidence heading into June.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see $2 billion outflows, pressuring sentiment
by June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
By late May 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced nearly $2 billion in combined withdrawals, reflecting institutional selling pressure. This outflow contributed to bearish market sentiment and reduced confidence in Bitcoin reaching $150k by mid-2026.
Bitcoin price falls below $73,000 triggering heavy liquidations
by June 30, 2026 drops to 1%8%
On May 28, 2026, Bitcoin broke below the $73,000 support level, causing nearly $1 billion in crypto liquidations, with Bitcoin leading at about $386 million. This liquidation cascade intensified selling pressure and contributed to a sharp price decline into early June.
Bitcoin crashes below $77K triggering major liquidation and ETF outflows
by June 30, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Bitcoin's price fell below the critical $77,000 support level on May 18, 2026, causing a $657 million liquidation event and significant ETF outflows, reflecting waning institutional demand and increased market volatility, which dampened short-term prospects for hitting $150k by June 30.
Clarity Act Regulation Bill Clears Crucial US Senate Hurdle
The US Senate advanced the Clarity Act, a major legislative milestone aimed at establishing federal oversight and unlocking large-scale institutional and pension fund demand.
Crypto industry wins as Clarity Act clears Senate hurdle
by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
On May 14, 2026, the Clarity Act regulation bill passed a Senate hurdle, signaling progress in establishing a federal regulatory framework for crypto assets including Bitcoin. This development was seen as a positive step for investor protection but added regulatory clarity that influenced market expectations for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Analyst predicts Bitcoin will hit $150,000 before end of 2026
An influential market analyst publicly forecasted Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing supply constraints post-halving and strong institutional ETF inflows as key drivers. This bolstered bullish sentiment for the year-end target but did not immediately impact short-term price.
Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle predicts $150K target by year-end 2026
Analysts highlighted Bitcoin's historical 4-year halving cycle as a key driver for a $150,000 price target by the end of 2026, reinforcing market expectations despite recent volatility and price corrections. This cyclical view supported the longer-term December 31, 2026 outcome over the nearer June 30 target.
U.S. Senate committee to consider long-awaited crypto regulatory bill
by December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
The U.S. Senate scheduled consideration of the Clarity Act, a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, potentially resolving legislative deadlock and influencing market confidence in Bitcoin's future price trajectory.
Bitcoin Wallet Count Declines at Fastest Rate in Nearly Two Years
by December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
On-chain data revealed that retail traders rapidly took profits as Bitcoin hovered around $79,000, leading to a loss of 245,000 active wallets in just five days.
Consensus 2026 conference held in Miami with strong institutional participation
by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
The large-scale crypto industry event attracted tens of thousands of participants, boosting institutional interest and market optimism, which supported Bitcoin's price recovery attempts in early May.
Sudden Bitcoin price surge fuels $16 trillion crypto market supercycle prediction
by December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Bitcoin's price rally alongside stock markets and reports of China secretly stockpiling Bitcoin sparked predictions of a $16 trillion crypto market supercycle, boosting confidence in Bitcoin's growth potential and supporting the $150,000 target by year-end.
Bitcoin price reaches $76,342 amid bullish momentum and institutional interest
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Bitcoin's price surged to $76,342 on April 28, 2026, fueled by positive market sentiment and growing institutional adoption, supporting optimism for a potential rally toward $150,000 by year-end. This surge reflected confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value despite ongoing market volatility.
Trump administration finalizes design for U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
In late April 2026, the Trump administration confirmed plans to finalize a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within two months. This initiative to accumulate Bitcoin through seized assets or agency fees was seen as a potential bullish catalyst but had limited immediate impact on short-term price probabilities.
Bitcoin trades near $78,000 ahead of major Fed meeting and peace talks
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Bitcoin held steady near $78,000 as investors awaited key Federal Reserve decisions and geopolitical developments, indicating cautious optimism but no immediate breakout toward $150K.
Bitcoin rallies above $79,000 supported by Michael Saylor's buying strategy
Bitcoin's price climbed about 15% in April 2026, crossing above $79,000, partly fueled by Michael Saylor's firm Strategy's Bitcoin acquisitions funded by preferred share sales, temporarily boosting market optimism.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Pull Record $2.44 Billion in April Inflows Led by BlackRock
by December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
An eight-day consecutive inflow streak from April 14 to April 23 brought $2.1 billion into spot ETFs, marking the strongest month of inflows in 2026 and temporarily supporting bullish sentiment.
U.S. lawmakers revise crypto tax policy referencing GENIUS Act
On April 14, 2026, U.S. lawmakers updated crypto tax policy discussions, specifically referencing the GENIUS Act which regulates stablecoins but does not extend exemptions to Bitcoin. This highlighted ongoing regulatory scrutiny, contributing to bearish sentiment for Bitcoin's short-term price targets.
US CPI data triggers volatility in Bitcoin prices
The release of US Consumer Price Index data caused significant intraday volatility in Bitcoin prices, reflecting sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators and influencing short-term market sentiment.
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses Oil Prices and Triggers Crypto Short Squeeze
A temporary two-week ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran crashed crude oil prices, shifting interest rate expectations and triggering a massive $427 million liquidation of crypto short positions.
Bitcoin Core v31 upgrade released with improved transaction privacy
The major node software upgrade improved fee efficiency and transaction privacy, signaling ongoing technological progress and community commitment to Bitcoin's long-term security, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Bitcoin Slipped to $69,000 as Middle East Conflict Hits Energy Infrastructure
Escalating geopolitical tensions and attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure drove oil prices back toward $100, stoking inflation fears and dragging down risk assets including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price rebounds to near one-month high around $74,000
By mid-March 2026, Bitcoin showed signs of recovery, rising to about $74,000, helped by falling oil prices and improved sentiment, but still well below $150,000, keeping probabilities low for hitting $150k by mid-2026.
20 millionth Bitcoin mined, marking a key supply milestone
The mining of the 20 millionth Bitcoin highlighted Bitcoin's programmed scarcity, reinforcing bullish long-term price expectations and supporting the outlook for hitting $150K by year-end. This event underscored the supply-side catalyst amid fiscal uncertainty.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, Bitcoin surges above $116,000
by June 30, 2026 surges to 23%19%
The Federal Reserve's first rate cut in years lowered borrowing costs and boosted liquidity, triggering a sharp Bitcoin price surge above $116,000 and renewed optimism about crypto market upside amid easing monetary policy.
Bitcoin price hits low near $68,000 amid market correction
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%20%
Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin underwent a significant correction into early 2026, with prices dropping near $68,000, reflecting market uncertainty and profit-taking after a strong rally.
Bitcoin price hits low near $67,000 amid market selloff
by June 30, 2026 dips to 2%3%
Bitcoin's price dropped below $67,000 in late February 2026, reflecting investor caution and contributing to the near collapse of odds for hitting $150,000 by mid-2026 in prediction markets.
Bernstein and other analysts maintain $150K Bitcoin target for 2026
Despite recent price weakness, Bernstein and other analysts reaffirmed a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by end-2026, citing institutional flows and whale accumulation, supporting a moderate bullish outlook.
Bitcoin suffers 50% correction from October 2025 peak, recovery timeline uncertain
by June 30, 2026 drops to 11%7%
Bitcoin declined roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 to about $66,000 by February 2026, marking one of the steepest corrections since the FTX collapse. This sharp pullback shifted market sentiment from euphoria to fear, lowering short-term expectations for hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.
Standard Chartered Warns of Potential Bitcoin Slide to $50,000
Standard Chartered cut its 2026 Bitcoin price projection to $150,000 and warned of a potential bottom of $50,000, fueling extreme fear and driving down prediction market odds.
Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 on Speculation of US Strategic Reserve
Bitcoin's spot price recovered strongly from its recent dip, bolstered by intensifying rumors that the US might formalize a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
Bitcoin price drops below $80,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty
by June 30, 2026 drops to 7%7%
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and risk-off sentiment. This decline further reduced confidence in a mid-2026 $150,000 price target, pushing market odds lower for that outcome.
Bitcoin suffers steep one-day decline amid orderly deleveraging and market volatility
by December 31, 2026 drops to 12%5%
Bitcoin tumbled more than 10% in a single day, marking one of its fastest crashes historically, driven by significant deleveraging in futures markets and heightened volatility. Despite the sharp drop, analysts described the move as orderly without systemic failure, signaling a cautious market environment.
Bitcoin price drops sharply amid broader market selloff
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
Bitcoin experienced a sharp price drop in early February 2026, falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, reflecting a typical post-bull cycle correction and reducing confidence in near-term $150k targets.
Bitcoin falls below $74,000 amid tech sector sell-off and AI jitters
by December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
A renewed sell-off in technology stocks, especially software companies, weighed on Bitcoin and crypto miners linked to AI infrastructure, causing Bitcoin to slide below $74,000. This reflected broader market risk aversion and contributed to Bitcoin's price decline in early February.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $545 Million in Net Outflows as Price Tumbles
by December 31, 2026 drops to 17%5%
Significant institutional outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and massive liquidations across major exchanges triggered a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price, dragging down prediction market odds.
Fed signals delayed interest rate cuts, dampening crypto risk appetite
by June 30, 2026 drops to 5%7%
The Federal Reserve's indication of postponed rate cuts increased monetary policy uncertainty, reducing risk appetite and institutional flows into crypto, leading to a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price probabilities for mid-2026.
Bitcoin price correction to around $70,000 dampens short-term optimism
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%13%
Bitcoin corrected roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, falling below $70,000 by early 2026, which contributed to reduced market confidence in hitting $150,000 within the first half of 2026.
SEC issues statement clarifying taxonomy of tokenized securities
The SEC's statement on tokenized securities taxonomy provided regulatory clarity, which was expected to support institutional adoption and market confidence, though immediate price impact was limited amid broader bearish trends.
Bitcoin plunges to fresh 2026 low amid bearish factors and U.S. government shutdown fears
by December 31, 2026 dips to 22%4%
Bitcoin dropped to around $86,400 as multiple bearish factors converged, including the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which increased market risk aversion and pressured Bitcoin prices downward.
Senate Committee advances digital asset oversight framework bill
The Senate's progress on a bipartisan crypto market structure bill aimed to clarify regulatory jurisdiction and consumer protections, signaling potential future regulatory clarity that could impact Bitcoin's institutional adoption and price dynamics.
Analysts revise Bitcoin 2026 price forecasts downward amid market correction
by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%7%
In early 2026, analysts including Standard Chartered and Bernstein lowered Bitcoin price forecasts to around $150,000, citing market corrections and regulatory factors, dampening short-term bullish sentiment.
Bernstein and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin rebound to $150,000 by year-end 2026
by December 31, 2026 dips to 28%3%
Bernstein and Standard Chartered both forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing institutional flows and ETF buying as key drivers despite recent price corrections. This reinforced the market's adjusted expectations for the $150k target by year-end rather than mid-year.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein revise Bitcoin price forecasts to $150k for 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 25%9%
Major financial institutions Standard Chartered and Bernstein cut their Bitcoin price targets to $150,000 for 2026, down from previous higher forecasts. This adjustment reflected market realities after the 2025 price decline and tempered expectations for rapid price appreciation within the year.
Standard Chartered Slashes 2026 Bitcoin Price Target to $150,000
Standard Chartered analysts reduced their Bitcoin price target for 2026 from $300,000 to $150,000, citing expectations of less aggressive buying from Digital Asset Treasury companies.
Epoch Ventures predicts Bitcoin will hit $150K by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 dips to 29%2%
Epoch Ventures forecasted Bitcoin reaching at least $150,000 by the end of 2026, citing steady ETF inflows and corporate adoption, signaling a shift to gradual growth rather than volatile cycles.
Bitcoin price recovery fragile despite recent gains in early 2026
by June 30, 2026 drops to 13%5%
Despite Bitcoin's price climbing after December lows, analysts described the recovery as fragile, with volatility and cautious investor sentiment persisting. This tempered expectations for a rapid rise to $150,000 within the first half of 2026.
Strong start to 2026 with Bitcoin and crypto markets rallying on ETF inflows
by June 30, 2026 rises to 18%4%
Bitcoin and broader crypto markets began 2026 strongly, buoyed by fresh new-year allocations and significant inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs. This renewed institutional interest supported a cautious but constructive market reset.
Tom Lee predicts new Bitcoin all-time high by end of January 2026
by June 30, 2026 rises to 18%4%
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors forecasted that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by the end of January 2026, signaling potential bullish momentum despite recent volatility and market corrections.
January 2026 ETF inflow reversal lifts Bitcoin 7.7 % to $93.8K
by June 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
Four‑day net inflow of $385.9 M into spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock and Fidelity) reversed a $1.5 B outflow streak, pushing Bitcoin up 7.7 % to $93,816 and nudging the probability of the “by‑June‑30” outcome higher.
Bitcoin rises above $90,000 amid positive market sentiment and AI infrastructure optimism
On the first trading day of 2026, Bitcoin climbed above $90,000, buoyed by gains in crypto miners pivoting to AI infrastructure and anticipation of CME Group launching bitcoin volatility futures. This optimism supported a bullish technical outlook and raised hopes for a price breakout.
Bitcoin price closes 2025 at $88,445 amid market cap of $2.15 trillion
by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
Bitcoin ended 2025 trading around $88,445, reflecting a significant decline from its October peak but showing a strong floor. This price level influenced market expectations for Bitcoin's trajectory into 2026.
U.S. Congress enacts GENIUS Act, establishing federal stablecoin framework
The GENIUS Act provided regulatory clarity by assigning stablecoin oversight to banking regulators, reducing uncertainty and signaling U.S. commitment to regulated digital assets, which helped stabilize market sentiment despite unresolved crypto market structure issues.
MicroStrategy sells part of Bitcoin holdings for tax purposes
by December 31, 2026 drops to 30%7%
MicroStrategy sold 704 BTC for about $11.8 million in late December 2025, signaling cautious corporate behavior amid market volatility. This sale contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin prices during the period.
US crypto industry celebrates major regulatory wins under Trump administration
by December 31, 2026 dips to 26%4%
The Trump administration's pro-crypto policies, including easing bank rules and approving crypto products, helped propel Bitcoin to new peaks in 2025 and laid groundwork for wider adoption, though concerns about systemic risks remain.
SEC issues no-action letter for Depository Trust Company blockchain pilot
by December 31, 2026 rises to 33%1%
The SEC's no-action letter allowing the Depository Trust Company to pilot tokenizing assets on blockchain signaled regulatory openness, boosting market confidence and temporarily supporting Bitcoin price prospects.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150k by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 28%5%
Standard Chartered revised down its Bitcoin price forecast from $200k to $150k by the end of 2026, reflecting increased bearish sentiment due to market volatility and regulatory uncertainties, contributing to declining market probabilities.
Standard Chartered slashes Bitcoin forecast to $150K by 2026
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%22%
Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin price target to $150 K by 2026, down from a previous $300 K. The downgrade signalled a more modest outlook, prompting a short‑term pullback that coincides with the drop from 33 % on Dec 6 to 11 % on Feb 11 (by‑December‑31 outcome).
BlackRock’s IBIT draws $120 M inflows, Bitcoin jumps 8 %
by December 31, 2026 dips to 27%4%
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust logged $120 M of net inflows, driving an 8 % jump that lifted the price from 31 % on Dec 28 to 27 % on Jan 8 (by‑December‑31 outcome). The inflow spike reversed earlier outflows and steadied the market.
Digital Asset Treasury companies face valuation challenges amid crypto price plunge
by June 30, 2026 drops to 32%13%
The plunge in crypto prices hurt valuations of Digital Asset Treasury companies, undermining their ability to support Bitcoin buying, leading to market consolidation and reduced price support in early 2026.
Standard Chartered halves Bitcoin price forecast to $150k by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 26%8%
Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price forecast downward from $300,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2026, reflecting the market's underperformance and increased macroeconomic uncertainties.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150K by end of 2026
by December 31, 2026 drops to 34%5%
Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price target downward from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid market volatility and macroeconomic concerns, dampening bullish sentiment.
Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin price forecast to $150,000 for 2026
by June 30, 2026 drops to 20%5%
Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price forecast downward from $300,000 to $150,000 for 2026, reflecting the significant price correction and changing macroeconomic conditions. This downgrade dampened market expectations for Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by mid-2026.
Bitcoin surges above $90,000 amid Federal Reserve rate cut expectations
by December 31, 2026 rises to 40%2%
Growing anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in December 2025 boosted investor confidence, driving Bitcoin prices above $90,000 and sparking a risk-on rally despite recent volatility and market disruptions like the CME outage.
Bitcoin price drops below $81,000 amid risk-off market sentiment
by June 30, 2026 drops to 34%5%
On November 21, Bitcoin's price fell sharply to $80,659 as part of a broader risk-off sentiment in the markets, reflecting investor caution and contributing to the ongoing price decline in late 2025.
Bitcoin ETFs see $869 million outflow amid price caution
by June 30, 2026 dips to 39%3%
On November 13, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a massive $869 million outflow as investors reacted to Bitcoin's price dropping below $100,000, intensifying the market sell-off and contributing to further price declines.
Bitcoin ETFs attract $524 M inflows, BlackRock leads with $224 M
by June 30, 2026 drops to 16%5%
Spot Bitcoin ETFs received $524 M of net inflows, led by BlackRock’s $224 M, which helped lift Bitcoin from 21 % on Dec 8 to 16 % on Dec 19 (by‑June‑30 outcome). The surge gave fresh institutional support after a period of outflows.
Bitcoin price correction begins after October peak
by June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%17%
Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin experienced a correction with prices declining significantly through November and December, reducing market confidence in hitting $150k by mid-2026.
Morgan Stanley signals Bitcoin entering 'autumn' phase of cycle, advising profit-taking
by December 31, 2026 drops to 40%12%
Morgan Stanley strategist warned that Bitcoin was entering a late cycle phase, suggesting an impending bear market and prompting investors to lock in profits, contributing to price declines in late 2025.
Bitcoin spot ETFs experience significant outflows, signaling reduced market confidence
by June 30, 2026 plunges to 21%21%
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $3.48 billion in outflows in November 2025, followed by additional outflows in December and January 2026, indicating institutional investors reducing exposure. This contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin prices and diminished near-term confidence in reaching $150k by mid-2026.
Bitcoin ETF outflows and liquidity crunch weigh on price in late 2025
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 30%15%
Record outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs and a liquidity crunch in late 2025 contributed to Bitcoin breaking key support levels and retesting lows, reflecting increased market caution and volatility.
Bitcoin market crash triggered by macro stress and liquidity event
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 39%23%
On October 10, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sharp crash due to a liquidity event triggered by macroeconomic stress, trade-war fears, and crowded positioning, causing a significant price drop and market volatility.
MSCI proposes reclassification of Digital Asset Treasury companies, triggering market concerns
by December 31, 2026 plunges to 38%22%
MSCI's consultation to reclassify companies holding large Bitcoin assets as fund-like vehicles threatened index exclusions, undermining a major marginal buyer group and contributing to a sharp market crash and sustained price weakness.
Bitcoin hits new all-time high above $126,000 amid ETF inflows
by December 31, 2026 jumps to 66%6%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,198 on October 6, 2025, driven by strong institutional demand and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting bullish market sentiment.
Bitcoin hits all-time high above $126,000
by December 31, 2026 rises to 64%4%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,198 in early October 2025, reflecting strong ETF inflows and growing long-term allocation by large funds. This peak marked the height of bullish sentiment before a significant correction.
Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, boosting Bitcoin risk appetite
by June 30, 2026 plunges to 58%15%
The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 bps, a dovish move that historically lifts risk assets. Bitcoin rose about 3 % the next day, helping the swing from 73 % on Aug 18 to 58 % on Aug 29 (by‑June‑30 outcome).
Whale selling pressure caps Bitcoin price near $113k resistance
by December 31, 2026 dips to 60%2%
Nakamoto CEO David Bailey highlighted that two massive whale sellers were suppressing Bitcoin's price, preventing it from reaching $150k. This selling pressure created an artificial ceiling, causing market skepticism and lowering short-term probabilities.
Nakamoto CEO predicts $150K Bitcoin once two whales finish selling
by June 30, 2026 surges to 76%25%
Nakamoto CEO David Bailey said Bitcoin was held back by two massive whales and would surge 36% to $150 K once they finished selling. The comment reinforced the narrative that whale liquidation was capping price, contributing to the rise from 51 % on Aug 7 to a peak of 76 % on Aug 13 (by‑June‑30 outcome).
Federal Reserve signals start of interest rate cuts, briefly boosting Bitcoin
by December 31, 2026 rises to 63%4%
On August 23, the Federal Reserve indicated it would begin lowering interest rates, prompting a brief Bitcoin rally. However, this was followed by another price drop, continuing the pattern of volatility through August and September.
Bitcoin peaks near $126,000, igniting market optimism
by December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high around $126,000 in October 2025, driven by strong institutional accumulation and ETF inflows, which initially boosted market confidence in hitting $150,000 soon after.
Bitcoin surges past $120,000 amid strong institutional ETF inflows
by December 31, 2026 surges to 75%24%
Bitcoin reached new highs above $120,000 in early August 2025, fueled by robust inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional adoption, boosting market confidence in a $150k target by 2026.
Bitcoin price surges amid ETF approvals and institutional optimism
by December 31, 2026 jumps to 60%9%
Early August 2025 saw Bitcoin prices rise due to the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and strong institutional demand, boosting market confidence and raising the probability of hitting $150k by year-end.
Bitcoin trading above $100,000 amid optimistic price forecasts
by June 30, 2026 jumps to 64%13%
In early August 2025, Bitcoin was trading above $100,000, supported by bullish forecasts predicting prices around $150,000 by summer 2025. This optimism was driven by expectations of increased institutional adoption and ETF inflows, boosting market confidence.
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