Elevated inventory levels exceeding five months of supply and persistently higher mortgage rates near 6.5% have anchored Austin metro median home values in the low-to-mid $420K range through mid-2026, driving the 96.7% market-implied probability for a sub-$446K outcome on September 30. Recent data, including July estimates near $424K and August median listings at $450K, reflect a prolonged correction from the 2022 peak amid ample new construction and price concessions on over one-third of listings. With only weeks until resolution, this positioning aligns with the latest verifiable trends in sales prices and absorption rates. A rapid, unexpected decline in rates or sharp demand surge could theoretically lift values, though such shifts appear improbable in the narrow timeframe.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhat will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
<$446K 96.6%
$470K - $478K 2.3%
$446K - $454K 1.7%
$486K+ <1%
$97,341 Wol.
$97,341 Wol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
97%
$446K - $454K
2%
$454K - $462K
<1%
$462K - $470K
<1%
$470K - $478K
2%
$478K - $486K
<1%
$486K+
<1%
<$446K 96.6%
$470K - $478K 2.3%
$446K - $454K 1.7%
$486K+ <1%
$97,341 Wol.
$97,341 Wol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
$36,593 Wol.
97%
$446K - $454K
$17,206 Wol.
2%
$454K - $462K
$7,923 Wol.
<1%
$462K - $470K
$6,358 Wol.
<1%
$470K - $478K
$13,581 Wol.
2%
$478K - $486K
$5,456 Wol.
<1%
$486K+
$10,224 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)Elevated inventory levels exceeding five months of supply and persistently higher mortgage rates near 6.5% have anchored Austin metro median home values in the low-to-mid $420K range through mid-2026, driving the 96.7% market-implied probability for a sub-$446K outcome on September 30. Recent data, including July estimates near $424K and August median listings at $450K, reflect a prolonged correction from the 2022 peak amid ample new construction and price concessions on over one-third of listings. With only weeks until resolution, this positioning aligns with the latest verifiable trends in sales prices and absorption rates. A rapid, unexpected decline in rates or sharp demand surge could theoretically lift values, though such shifts appear improbable in the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Rynek otwarty: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Wolumen
$97,341Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)Elevated inventory levels exceeding five months of supply and persistently higher mortgage rates near 6.5% have anchored Austin metro median home values in the low-to-mid $420K range through mid-2026, driving the 96.7% market-implied probability for a sub-$446K outcome on September 30. Recent data, including July estimates near $424K and August median listings at $450K, reflect a prolonged correction from the 2022 peak amid ample new construction and price concessions on over one-third of listings. With only weeks until resolution, this positioning aligns with the latest verifiable trends in sales prices and absorption rates. A rapid, unexpected decline in rates or sharp demand surge could theoretically lift values, though such shifts appear improbable in the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Wolumen
$97,341Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inventory levels exceeding five months of supply and persistently higher mortgage rates near 6.5% have anchored Austin metro median home values in the low-to-mid $420K range through mid-2026, driving the 96.7% market-implied probability for a sub-$446K outcome on September 30. Recent data, including July estimates near $424K and August median listings at $450K, reflect a prolonged correction from the 2022 peak amid ample new construction and price concessions on over one-third of listings. With only weeks until resolution, this positioning aligns with the latest verifiable trends in sales prices and absorption rates. A rapid, unexpected decline in rates or sharp demand surge could theoretically lift values, though such shifts appear improbable in the narrow timeframe.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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