The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoVA-02 House Election Winner
VA-02 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
72%
Republican Party
22%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$287 Wol.
72%
Republican Party
$516 Wol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$803Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$803Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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