Trump’s explicit rejection of any slowdown in U.S. frontier AI development remains the dominant driver behind the 93 percent market-implied odds against a 2026 U.S.-China agreement to pace advanced model training. Following the September 2026 summit, the two sides established only a bilateral incident-communication channel and a “Super Intelligence” dialogue scheduled for November, with no commitments on joint testing standards, capability caps, or development pauses. Trump repeatedly emphasized America’s lead of at least one year and stated the United States “is not going to be putting on brakes,” framing the talks as deconfliction rather than cooperation. While the November round and any follow-on APEC discussions could surface new proposals, sustained U.S. export controls, domestic deregulation, and competitive incentives make a binding pace agreement unlikely before year-end.