Robust consumer spending and AI-fueled business investment have positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the leading Polymarket outcome for Q3 2026 US GDP growth at 46% implied probability. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast stands at 4.4% as of September 10, reflecting strength in personal consumption and capital expenditures, while August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Professional forecasters have lifted their Q3 estimate to 2.5%, citing resilient demand despite Q2 growth of just 1.5%. Elevated inflation readings, including the 3.4% August CPI, introduce uncertainty around monetary policy, yet trader consensus continues to embed expectations for above-trend expansion through quarter-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0% 47%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 14%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$25,645 Wol.
$25,645 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
21%
2.5–3.0%
14%
≥3.0%
47%
≥3.0% 47%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 14%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$25,645 Wol.
$25,645 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$906 Wol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Wol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 Wol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Wol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,885 Wol.
21%
2.5–3.0%
$3,391 Wol.
14%
≥3.0%
$17,527 Wol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Robust consumer spending and AI-fueled business investment have positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the leading Polymarket outcome for Q3 2026 US GDP growth at 46% implied probability. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast stands at 4.4% as of September 10, reflecting strength in personal consumption and capital expenditures, while August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Professional forecasters have lifted their Q3 estimate to 2.5%, citing resilient demand despite Q2 growth of just 1.5%. Elevated inflation readings, including the 3.4% August CPI, introduce uncertainty around monetary policy, yet trader consensus continues to embed expectations for above-trend expansion through quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$25,645Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Robust consumer spending and AI-fueled business investment have positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the leading Polymarket outcome for Q3 2026 US GDP growth at 46% implied probability. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast stands at 4.4% as of September 10, reflecting strength in personal consumption and capital expenditures, while August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Professional forecasters have lifted their Q3 estimate to 2.5%, citing resilient demand despite Q2 growth of just 1.5%. Elevated inflation readings, including the 3.4% August CPI, introduce uncertainty around monetary policy, yet trader consensus continues to embed expectations for above-trend expansion through quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Wolumen
$25,645Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Robust consumer spending and AI-fueled business investment have positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the leading Polymarket outcome for Q3 2026 US GDP growth at 46% implied probability. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast stands at 4.4% as of September 10, reflecting strength in personal consumption and capital expenditures, while August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Professional forecasters have lifted their Q3 estimate to 2.5%, citing resilient demand despite Q2 growth of just 1.5%. Elevated inflation readings, including the 3.4% August CPI, introduce uncertainty around monetary policy, yet trader consensus continues to embed expectations for above-trend expansion through quarter-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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