President Donald Trump’s July 2026 announcement that the United States would assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz and levy a 20 percent cargo-value reimbursement fee was reversed within 24 hours, with the administration shifting instead to trade and investment agreements with Gulf states. This rapid policy reversal, combined with explicit opposition from the International Maritime Organization citing the absence of any legal basis for mandatory transit tolls, has anchored trader consensus at very low implied probabilities for U.S. implementation by August 31 or December 31. U.S. officials continue to emphasize freedom-of-navigation principles under international maritime law while rejecting toll arrangements, and no subsequent executive or legislative action has altered that stance. Diplomatic engagement with regional partners and any future clarification on enforcement mechanisms remain the principal variables that could still shift outcomes before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS charges Hormuz fees by...?
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
$961,377 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
December 31
7%
$961,377 Wol.
August 31
$176,317 Wol.
1%
December 31
$97,908 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s July 2026 announcement that the United States would assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz and levy a 20 percent cargo-value reimbursement fee was reversed within 24 hours, with the administration shifting instead to trade and investment agreements with Gulf states. This rapid policy reversal, combined with explicit opposition from the International Maritime Organization citing the absence of any legal basis for mandatory transit tolls, has anchored trader consensus at very low implied probabilities for U.S. implementation by August 31 or December 31. U.S. officials continue to emphasize freedom-of-navigation principles under international maritime law while rejecting toll arrangements, and no subsequent executive or legislative action has altered that stance. Diplomatic engagement with regional partners and any future clarification on enforcement mechanisms remain the principal variables that could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$961,377Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s July 2026 announcement that the United States would assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz and levy a 20 percent cargo-value reimbursement fee was reversed within 24 hours, with the administration shifting instead to trade and investment agreements with Gulf states. This rapid policy reversal, combined with explicit opposition from the International Maritime Organization citing the absence of any legal basis for mandatory transit tolls, has anchored trader consensus at very low implied probabilities for U.S. implementation by August 31 or December 31. U.S. officials continue to emphasize freedom-of-navigation principles under international maritime law while rejecting toll arrangements, and no subsequent executive or legislative action has altered that stance. Diplomatic engagement with regional partners and any future clarification on enforcement mechanisms remain the principal variables that could still shift outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$961,377Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump’s July 2026 announcement that the United States would assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz and levy a 20 percent cargo-value reimbursement fee was reversed within 24 hours, with the administration shifting instead to trade and investment agreements with Gulf states. This rapid policy reversal, combined with explicit opposition from the International Maritime Organization citing the absence of any legal basis for mandatory transit tolls, has anchored trader consensus at very low implied probabilities for U.S. implementation by August 31 or December 31. U.S. officials continue to emphasize freedom-of-navigation principles under international maritime law while rejecting toll arrangements, and no subsequent executive or legislative action has altered that stance. Diplomatic engagement with regional partners and any future clarification on enforcement mechanisms remain the principal variables that could still shift outcomes before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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