Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that any peace agreement involving territorial concessions would require a nationwide referendum, but this hinges on a sustained ceasefire of at least 60 days to ensure security and infrastructure for voting—conditions Russia has not provided amid ongoing hostilities. Martial law prohibits such votes, and organizing one demands legislative changes, extensive preparation time, and broad turnout that current displacement and security risks make impractical before 2027. Recent negotiations around a 20-point U.S.-backed framework have produced no breakthrough on core issues like Donbas control, while brief ceasefires and stalled talks underscore persistent barriers. Traders assign "No" a 96.5% implied probability because these structural, legal, and diplomatic obstacles have shown no signs of rapid resolution. A sudden comprehensive ceasefire agreement or major shift in Russian negotiating posture remains the primary scenario that could still enable a vote within the window.