Trader consensus in the UK Q3 2026 GDP QoQ market centers on the 0.2–0.3% band at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting subdued momentum amid higher energy prices from Middle East tensions. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projected underlying GDP growth near 0% for the quarter as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, following Q2’s 0.4% expansion after 0.6% in Q1. Recent labor data reinforce this view, with unemployment steady at 4.9%, payrolled employment declining, and earnings growth easing to 3.9% in the three months to July. Market-implied odds price in these headwinds while allowing for modest services resilience, though the upcoming September CPI release and October BoE meeting could shift probabilities ahead of the Q3 national accounts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 22%
0.6–0.7% 5.8%
$19,085 Wol.
$19,085 Wol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
6%
0.0–0.1%
22%
0.2–0.3%
42%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
6%
0.8–0.9%
<1%
1.0%+
2%
0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 22%
0.6–0.7% 5.8%
$19,085 Wol.
$19,085 Wol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$4,029 Wol.
6%
0.0–0.1%
$5,965 Wol.
22%
0.2–0.3%
$6,709 Wol.
42%
0.4–0.5%
$1,674 Wol.
26%
0.6–0.7%
$270 Wol.
6%
0.8–0.9%
$201 Wol.
<1%
1.0%+
$237 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus in the UK Q3 2026 GDP QoQ market centers on the 0.2–0.3% band at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting subdued momentum amid higher energy prices from Middle East tensions. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projected underlying GDP growth near 0% for the quarter as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, following Q2’s 0.4% expansion after 0.6% in Q1. Recent labor data reinforce this view, with unemployment steady at 4.9%, payrolled employment declining, and earnings growth easing to 3.9% in the three months to July. Market-implied odds price in these headwinds while allowing for modest services resilience, though the upcoming September CPI release and October BoE meeting could shift probabilities ahead of the Q3 national accounts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$19,085Data zakończenia
Nov 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus in the UK Q3 2026 GDP QoQ market centers on the 0.2–0.3% band at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting subdued momentum amid higher energy prices from Middle East tensions. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projected underlying GDP growth near 0% for the quarter as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, following Q2’s 0.4% expansion after 0.6% in Q1. Recent labor data reinforce this view, with unemployment steady at 4.9%, payrolled employment declining, and earnings growth easing to 3.9% in the three months to July. Market-implied odds price in these headwinds while allowing for modest services resilience, though the upcoming September CPI release and October BoE meeting could shift probabilities ahead of the Q3 national accounts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$19,085Data zakończenia
Nov 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the UK Q3 2026 GDP QoQ market centers on the 0.2–0.3% band at 41.5% implied probability, reflecting subdued momentum amid higher energy prices from Middle East tensions. The Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projected underlying GDP growth near 0% for the quarter as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, following Q2’s 0.4% expansion after 0.6% in Q1. Recent labor data reinforce this view, with unemployment steady at 4.9%, payrolled employment declining, and earnings growth easing to 3.9% in the three months to July. Market-implied odds price in these headwinds while allowing for modest services resilience, though the upcoming September CPI release and October BoE meeting could shift probabilities ahead of the Q3 national accounts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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