The U.S. State Department has explicitly rejected Taliban overtures for American investment in Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion mineral resources, including lithium, copper, and rare earths, citing the group’s terrorist designation, sanctions regime, and human rights record. This September 2026 stance followed Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s public invitation for mining and infrastructure deals. The Trump administration has instead advanced critical minerals agreements with Armenia, Ecuador, Pakistan, and Australia while launching a $12 billion domestic stockpile initiative focused on allied supply chains. No official bilateral engagement or agreement has materialized, and procedural barriers such as sanctions relief requirements remain unaddressed. These confirmed policy positions underpin the 81.5% implied probability that no Trump-Taliban mineral deal will be signed in 2026.