The 89.5% market-implied probability for "No" stems primarily from the extended timeline required to establish the United States Space Academy under the August 2026 executive order. NASA’s Presidential Commission, chaired by Administrator Jared Isaacman, held its first meeting in September and issued an RFI for state hosting proposals due in late October, with official milestones calling for groundbreaking by 2027, temporary facilities for an initial class of 300 students in 2028, and a permanent campus by 2031. Congressional authorization, funding, curriculum development, faculty recruitment, and facility construction represent substantial barriers that historical precedents for service academies show typically demand multiple years. While the commission’s 120-day report due around December 2026 could accelerate planning, current conditions and model timelines indicate actual instruction starting by June 2027 remains improbable.