Traders see a tight contest for third place in Text Arena math performance by end of October, with Google holding a modest edge at 44.5% implied probability over Z.ai at 37.6%. Google’s Gemini series continues to demonstrate strong reasoning gains on math benchmarks through iterative model updates and integration with search infrastructure, while Z.ai maintains competitive positioning via specialized training on mathematical datasets and rapid iteration cycles typical of leading Chinese labs. OpenAI trails significantly at 9.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases prioritize broader capabilities over targeted math gains. Other labs remain long shots below 8%, underscoring the concentrated race. Key upcoming catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark updates in the next six weeks that could shift relative rankings before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Google 45%
Z.ai 37.9%
OpenAI 9%
Alibaba 8%
$38,627 Wol.
$38,627 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
45%
Z.ai
38%
OpenAI
9%
Alibaba
8%
Moonshot
3%
Baidu
1%
Meituan
1%
Anthropic
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 45%
Z.ai 37.9%
OpenAI 9%
Alibaba 8%
$38,627 Wol.
$38,627 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
$10,583 Wol.
45%
Z.ai
$2,084 Wol.
38%
OpenAI
$3,702 Wol.
9%
Alibaba
$10,455 Wol.
8%
Moonshot
$881 Wol.
3%
Baidu
$729 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$1,535 Wol.
1%
Anthropic
$704 Wol.
1%
Nvidia
$1,179 Wol.
1%
Meta
$663 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$682 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$701 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$684 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$706 Wol.
<1%
Bytedance
$748 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$632 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$495 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$646 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$422 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$395 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight contest for third place in Text Arena math performance by end of October, with Google holding a modest edge at 44.5% implied probability over Z.ai at 37.6%. Google’s Gemini series continues to demonstrate strong reasoning gains on math benchmarks through iterative model updates and integration with search infrastructure, while Z.ai maintains competitive positioning via specialized training on mathematical datasets and rapid iteration cycles typical of leading Chinese labs. OpenAI trails significantly at 9.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases prioritize broader capabilities over targeted math gains. Other labs remain long shots below 8%, underscoring the concentrated race. Key upcoming catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark updates in the next six weeks that could shift relative rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$38,627Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight contest for third place in Text Arena math performance by end of October, with Google holding a modest edge at 44.5% implied probability over Z.ai at 37.6%. Google’s Gemini series continues to demonstrate strong reasoning gains on math benchmarks through iterative model updates and integration with search infrastructure, while Z.ai maintains competitive positioning via specialized training on mathematical datasets and rapid iteration cycles typical of leading Chinese labs. OpenAI trails significantly at 9.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases prioritize broader capabilities over targeted math gains. Other labs remain long shots below 8%, underscoring the concentrated race. Key upcoming catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark updates in the next six weeks that could shift relative rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$38,627Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight contest for third place in Text Arena math performance by end of October, with Google holding a modest edge at 44.5% implied probability over Z.ai at 37.6%. Google’s Gemini series continues to demonstrate strong reasoning gains on math benchmarks through iterative model updates and integration with search infrastructure, while Z.ai maintains competitive positioning via specialized training on mathematical datasets and rapid iteration cycles typical of leading Chinese labs. OpenAI trails significantly at 9.5%, reflecting trader views that its recent releases prioritize broader capabilities over targeted math gains. Other labs remain long shots below 8%, underscoring the concentrated race. Key upcoming catalysts include any new model drops or benchmark updates in the next six weeks that could shift relative rankings before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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