Mayes Middleton secured the Republican nomination for Texas attorney general after defeating U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 2026 primary runoff, positioning him as the frontrunner in a state where Republicans have held the office since 1998. The open seat, created when incumbent Ken Paxton sought a U.S. Senate bid, drew state Sen. Nathan Johnson as the Democratic nominee following his own runoff victory. Recent polls show Middleton ahead by roughly five points amid significant undecided voters, while Johnson has launched a seven-figure statewide ad campaign emphasizing rule of law and consumer protections ahead of early voting in mid-October. Trader consensus on Middleton reflects Texas's structural Republican advantage and his primary performance, tempered by the narrower-than-usual general election contest and Democratic outreach on issues like public safety and regulatory enforcement.