Recent opinion polls project the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox securing a combined 198–212 seats in Spain’s 350-seat Congress for the November 29 snap election, comfortably exceeding the 176-seat absolute majority threshold in the vast majority of simulations. This positioning follows Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s early dissolution of parliament amid coalition strains, including the collapse of housing decrees and regional tensions such as the Ceuta migration situation. Vox has recorded the largest gains, often doubling its 2023 seat total through stronger support on immigration and nationalist issues, while the PSOE and allied left parties have declined sharply. These consistent polling trends across multiple firms underpin the current trader consensus on a PP-Vox majority outcome.