**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 63.5% implied probability stems primarily from the substantial engineering hurdles still facing Starship's upper stage reusability by year-end 2026.** While SpaceX has achieved multiple successful Super Heavy booster tower catches and reflow preparations by mid-2026, the Ship has yet to demonstrate a controlled tower return or rapid reflight. Flight 13 in July delivered an intact soft splashdown with improved heat shield performance and engine relight data, enabling detailed post-flight analysis of Ship 40, but recovery timelines span months and full reuse remains unproven. Flight 14, targeted for mid-September, focuses on orbital insertion and Starlink V3 deployment with V3 hardware, potentially advancing catch attempts, yet analysts and market participants note historical schedule slips, regulatory approvals, and the need for repeated, low-refurbishment cycles as key risks. These factors underpin the current odds, reflecting aggregated trader assessment of execution timelines.