The Sonora state congress election, scheduled for June 6, 2027, alongside the governorship and municipal races, remains highly competitive due to its early timeline and fragmented field. Morena currently holds the largest bloc in the outgoing legislature and leads statewide polling for related contests, yet its implied probability sits near 43 percent amid expectations of alliances with PT and PVEM. Opposition parties including PAN, PRI, and MC trail in surveys with single-digit support, but their combined potential and local party dynamics sustain close pricing across multiple outcomes. Recent steps include the launch of the federal-local process in September 2026, internal Morena coordination selections, and approved precampaign calendars starting in December, all of which leave ample room for shifts from candidate choices, coalition negotiations, and turnout patterns before voting begins.