Recent forecasts from major Chinese institutions, including CICC and Oriental Jincheng, center on a mild September CPI rebound to around 1.0% year-over-year, up from August’s 0.8% print, driven by seasonal food price gains—particularly narrower pork declines amid improved consumption and a low base—and higher energy costs tied to rising international oil prices. These factors have positioned the 0.9%–1.0% range as the consensus outcome among traders. Persistent weak domestic demand and subdued core pressures continue to cap upside, while potential further commodity volatility supports the smaller probability assigned to 1.1%+. The data release is scheduled for mid-October.