OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied odds at 46.5% for second place on Text Arena’s math leaderboard by end of October, ahead of Anthropic at 27% and Google at 24%, reflecting trader focus on recent model releases and benchmark momentum. GPT-6 Astra’s early September rollout delivered notable gains on math-specific evaluations, including high scores on MATH-500 and related olympiad-style tasks, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 series maintain consistent leadership in reasoning arenas but face questions about further gains before the deadline. Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash variants show competitive Elo ratings in math categories yet trail in some head-to-head human votes. With frequent frontier updates and converging top-tier performance, the outcome hinges on any additional releases or leaderboard shifts in the next eight weeks, underscoring how post-training refinements and domain-specific scaling continue to drive differentiation among labs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
OpenAI 49%
Anthropic 26%
Google 23%
Alibaba 4%
$49,026 Wol.
$49,026 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
49%
Anthropic
26%
23%
Alibaba
4%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Meituan
1%
ByteDance
1%
StepFun
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
OpenAI 49%
Anthropic 26%
Google 23%
Alibaba 4%
$49,026 Wol.
$49,026 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$3,336 Wol.
49%
Anthropic
$3,291 Wol.
26%
$31,800 Wol.
23%
Alibaba
$1,311 Wol.
4%
Z.ai
$659 Wol.
1%
Moonshot
$561 Wol.
1%
Baidu
$566 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$596 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$557 Wol.
1%
Meta
$571 Wol.
1%
Xiaomi
$538 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$889 Wol.
1%
ByteDance
$606 Wol.
1%
StepFun
$591 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$603 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$588 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$737 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$521 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$370 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$336 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied odds at 46.5% for second place on Text Arena’s math leaderboard by end of October, ahead of Anthropic at 27% and Google at 24%, reflecting trader focus on recent model releases and benchmark momentum. GPT-6 Astra’s early September rollout delivered notable gains on math-specific evaluations, including high scores on MATH-500 and related olympiad-style tasks, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 series maintain consistent leadership in reasoning arenas but face questions about further gains before the deadline. Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash variants show competitive Elo ratings in math categories yet trail in some head-to-head human votes. With frequent frontier updates and converging top-tier performance, the outcome hinges on any additional releases or leaderboard shifts in the next eight weeks, underscoring how post-training refinements and domain-specific scaling continue to drive differentiation among labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Wolumen
$49,026Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied odds at 46.5% for second place on Text Arena’s math leaderboard by end of October, ahead of Anthropic at 27% and Google at 24%, reflecting trader focus on recent model releases and benchmark momentum. GPT-6 Astra’s early September rollout delivered notable gains on math-specific evaluations, including high scores on MATH-500 and related olympiad-style tasks, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 series maintain consistent leadership in reasoning arenas but face questions about further gains before the deadline. Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash variants show competitive Elo ratings in math categories yet trail in some head-to-head human votes. With frequent frontier updates and converging top-tier performance, the outcome hinges on any additional releases or leaderboard shifts in the next eight weeks, underscoring how post-training refinements and domain-specific scaling continue to drive differentiation among labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$49,026Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds the strongest market-implied odds at 46.5% for second place on Text Arena’s math leaderboard by end of October, ahead of Anthropic at 27% and Google at 24%, reflecting trader focus on recent model releases and benchmark momentum. GPT-6 Astra’s early September rollout delivered notable gains on math-specific evaluations, including high scores on MATH-500 and related olympiad-style tasks, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 series maintain consistent leadership in reasoning arenas but face questions about further gains before the deadline. Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash variants show competitive Elo ratings in math categories yet trail in some head-to-head human votes. With frequent frontier updates and converging top-tier performance, the outcome hinges on any additional releases or leaderboard shifts in the next eight weeks, underscoring how post-training refinements and domain-specific scaling continue to drive differentiation among labs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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