**Traders assign an 81.5% probability to no snap election being called in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026 because the state held its scheduled Landtag election on 6 September 2026, after which the new parliament convened on 6 October and is now focused on electing a minister-president in mid-December.** The AfD secured 39 of 83 seats (43.8% of the vote) but fell short of the 42-seat majority needed for its candidate Ulrich Siegmund. Other parties, including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and Left, have ruled out cooperation with the AfD, while the BSW has signaled limited, issue-specific support. CDU lawmakers have announced they will boycott early voting rounds for minister-president and remain present only in a potential third round requiring a simple majority. No party has initiated dissolution proceedings or publicly advocated early elections. The outgoing CDU-SPD-FDP caretaker government continues routine business amid calls from business and local authorities for stability. Under state rules, repeated failures to elect a minister-president could eventually trigger a dissolution vote, but current procedural timelines and political positioning make that outcome unlikely before year-end.