Recent suspected drone strikes on two commercial cargo vessels off Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast on October 12-13, sinking one (HS Dignity) with 11 crew missing and damaging the Ukrainian-owned Chelsea-3, have intensified focus on Russian maritime operations. Bulgarian officials cited outcomes benefiting Russia and summoned its ambassador, while Ukraine explicitly attributed the attacks to Moscow; Russia has separately claimed strikes on vessels delivering military cargo to Ukrainian ports like Odesa and Mykolaiv. These incidents follow a similar event the prior week and align with Russia’s pattern of targeting shipping it links to Ukrainian logistics, alongside Ukraine’s ongoing campaign against Russian shadow fleet vessels. Escalation risks, NATO consultations, and any verified attribution or pause in operations could shift probabilities in related markets.