Elevated underlying inflation, with the trimmed mean steady at 3.6% year-over-year through July 2026 and headline CPI at 3.5%, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Reserve Bank of Australia's November cash rate decision. The RBA's August hold at 4.35% was accompanied by explicit warnings of upside risks from capacity pressures and Middle East-related costs, keeping monetary policy restrictive and tilting market-implied odds toward no change at 61% while assigning 37.6% to a 25 basis point hike. Recent firm household spending and GDP prints have reinforced hawkish bank forecasts for a potential November move, though easing labor market conditions and the RBA's data-dependent approach sustain uncertainty ahead of the September meeting and subsequent releases. These probabilities reflect aggregated trader consensus on the balance between persistent inflation above the 2-3% target and the need for further tightening.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoReserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change 62%
25 bps increase 37.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$37,994 Wol.
$37,994 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 37.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$37,994 Wol.
$37,994 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,313 Wol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,604 Wol.
1%
No change
$22,984 Wol.
62%
25 bps increase
$8,582 Wol.
38%
50+ bps increase
$1,510 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated underlying inflation, with the trimmed mean steady at 3.6% year-over-year through July 2026 and headline CPI at 3.5%, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Reserve Bank of Australia's November cash rate decision. The RBA's August hold at 4.35% was accompanied by explicit warnings of upside risks from capacity pressures and Middle East-related costs, keeping monetary policy restrictive and tilting market-implied odds toward no change at 61% while assigning 37.6% to a 25 basis point hike. Recent firm household spending and GDP prints have reinforced hawkish bank forecasts for a potential November move, though easing labor market conditions and the RBA's data-dependent approach sustain uncertainty ahead of the September meeting and subsequent releases. These probabilities reflect aggregated trader consensus on the balance between persistent inflation above the 2-3% target and the need for further tightening.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$37,994Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Elevated underlying inflation, with the trimmed mean steady at 3.6% year-over-year through July 2026 and headline CPI at 3.5%, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Reserve Bank of Australia's November cash rate decision. The RBA's August hold at 4.35% was accompanied by explicit warnings of upside risks from capacity pressures and Middle East-related costs, keeping monetary policy restrictive and tilting market-implied odds toward no change at 61% while assigning 37.6% to a 25 basis point hike. Recent firm household spending and GDP prints have reinforced hawkish bank forecasts for a potential November move, though easing labor market conditions and the RBA's data-dependent approach sustain uncertainty ahead of the September meeting and subsequent releases. These probabilities reflect aggregated trader consensus on the balance between persistent inflation above the 2-3% target and the need for further tightening.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Wolumen
$37,994Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated underlying inflation, with the trimmed mean steady at 3.6% year-over-year through July 2026 and headline CPI at 3.5%, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Reserve Bank of Australia's November cash rate decision. The RBA's August hold at 4.35% was accompanied by explicit warnings of upside risks from capacity pressures and Middle East-related costs, keeping monetary policy restrictive and tilting market-implied odds toward no change at 61% while assigning 37.6% to a 25 basis point hike. Recent firm household spending and GDP prints have reinforced hawkish bank forecasts for a potential November move, though easing labor market conditions and the RBA's data-dependent approach sustain uncertainty ahead of the September meeting and subsequent releases. These probabilities reflect aggregated trader consensus on the balance between persistent inflation above the 2-3% target and the need for further tightening.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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