Recent above-average rainfall in Minas Gerais during September and early October 2026 has replenished soil moisture for arabica coffee flowering and fruit set, tempering immediate drought risks despite a developing strong El Niño pattern projected to peak through late 2026. Official monitoring shows mixed signals, with localized low humidity alerts and hot, dry spells at month-end contrasting forecasts for continued wetter-than-normal conditions into mid-October. These dynamics, alongside historical analogs of El Niño-driven deficits during reproductive phases, create uncertainty around peak severe drought intensity; traders weigh potential later-season stress from elevated evapotranspiration against current model consensus favoring adequate precipitation through critical windows.