OPEC continues to function as an active intergovernmental body in late 2026, with core members holding regular ministerial meetings to review and maintain production targets amid ongoing Middle East supply disruptions. Algeria, Russia, Kazakhstan, and others have publicly reaffirmed commitment to the group’s coordination framework following the UAE’s May 2026 exit, while Iraq has signaled intent to remain despite quota disputes. These steps demonstrate institutional continuity and collective decision-making on output adjustments through year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 97.7% implied probability against dissolution. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional coordinated withdrawals by multiple founding members or an explicit formal agreement among remaining states to disband the organization before December 31.