Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, citing needs for production flexibility amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Middle East tensions. This departure trims OPEC's global supply share from roughly 30% to 26%, yet core producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain committed, with OPEC+—including Russia—recently affirming modest output hikes of 206,000 barrels per day in April meetings to balance constrained supplies. Strong cohesion is underpinned by shared incentives to manage volatility in Brent crude amid geopolitical risks. Realistic challenges include a cascade of exits if post-UAE oil prices plunge on oversupply fears, or intensified regional conflicts eroding coordination ahead of year-end reviews.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, citing needs for production flexibility amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Middle East tensions. This departure trims OPEC's global supply share from roughly 30% to 26%, yet core producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain committed, with OPEC+—including Russia—recently affirming modest output hikes of 206,000 barrels per day in April meetings to balance constrained supplies. Strong cohesion is underpinned by shared incentives to manage volatility in Brent crude amid geopolitical risks. Realistic challenges include a cascade of exits if post-UAE oil prices plunge on oversupply fears, or intensified regional conflicts eroding coordination ahead of year-end reviews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,400Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, citing needs for production flexibility amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Middle East tensions. This departure trims OPEC's global supply share from roughly 30% to 26%, yet core producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain committed, with OPEC+—including Russia—recently affirming modest output hikes of 206,000 barrels per day in April meetings to balance constrained supplies. Strong cohesion is underpinned by shared incentives to manage volatility in Brent crude amid geopolitical risks. Realistic challenges include a cascade of exits if post-UAE oil prices plunge on oversupply fears, or intensified regional conflicts eroding coordination ahead of year-end reviews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$2,400Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, citing needs for production flexibility amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Middle East tensions. This departure trims OPEC's global supply share from roughly 30% to 26%, yet core producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq remain committed, with OPEC+—including Russia—recently affirming modest output hikes of 206,000 barrels per day in April meetings to balance constrained supplies. Strong cohesion is underpinned by shared incentives to manage volatility in Brent crude amid geopolitical risks. Realistic challenges include a cascade of exits if post-UAE oil prices plunge on oversupply fears, or intensified regional conflicts eroding coordination ahead of year-end reviews.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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