Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, encompassing southern Oklahoma City suburbs and rural areas in the south-central part of the state, has consistently delivered strong Republican margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 65% share in the 2024 general election. Long-serving Republican Representative Tom Cole, first elected in 2002 and facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the June 16, 2026, primaries, benefits from substantial campaign resources and the district's partisan voting index that favors Republicans by double digits. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November 3, 2026, general election, reflecting this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Democratic challengers positioned to close the gap. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unexpected primary outcome remain the primary factors that could alter the current consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOK-04 House Election Winner
OK-04 House Election Winner
$22,244 Wol.
$22,244 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$22,244 Wol.
$22,244 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$14,218 Wol.
94%
Democratic Party
$8,026 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, encompassing southern Oklahoma City suburbs and rural areas in the south-central part of the state, has consistently delivered strong Republican margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 65% share in the 2024 general election. Long-serving Republican Representative Tom Cole, first elected in 2002 and facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the June 16, 2026, primaries, benefits from substantial campaign resources and the district's partisan voting index that favors Republicans by double digits. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November 3, 2026, general election, reflecting this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Democratic challengers positioned to close the gap. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unexpected primary outcome remain the primary factors that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Wolumen
$22,244Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, encompassing southern Oklahoma City suburbs and rural areas in the south-central part of the state, has consistently delivered strong Republican margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 65% share in the 2024 general election. Long-serving Republican Representative Tom Cole, first elected in 2002 and facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the June 16, 2026, primaries, benefits from substantial campaign resources and the district's partisan voting index that favors Republicans by double digits. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November 3, 2026, general election, reflecting this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Democratic challengers positioned to close the gap. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unexpected primary outcome remain the primary factors that could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$22,244Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, encompassing southern Oklahoma City suburbs and rural areas in the south-central part of the state, has consistently delivered strong Republican margins in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 65% share in the 2024 general election. Long-serving Republican Representative Tom Cole, first elected in 2002 and facing only limited primary opposition ahead of the June 16, 2026, primaries, benefits from substantial campaign resources and the district's partisan voting index that favors Republicans by double digits. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November 3, 2026, general election, reflecting this structural advantage and the absence of competitive Democratic challengers positioned to close the gap. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unexpected primary outcome remain the primary factors that could alter the current consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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