Morena and its allies PVEM and PT currently hold roughly 81% of seats in the Oaxaca state congress, reflecting their strong performance in the prior cycle and ongoing control of the LXVI Legislature. The ordinary electoral process for renewing all 42 seats officially opened in September 2026, with the vote set for June 2027 alongside federal contests, introducing uncertainty around candidate selection, new national parties, independent candidacies, and district-level dynamics. Opposition parties such as MC, PRI, and PAN maintain lower implied probabilities amid fragmented support and limited recent statewide polling, while coalition negotiations and resource allocation continue to shape trader views. The absence of decisive late-cycle developments keeps multiple outcomes closely matched.