Republican David Flippo leads the race for Nevada’s open 2nd congressional district seat at 74% in trader pricing, while Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson sits at 26.5%. The district’s long Republican tilt, including Donald Trump’s 14-point margin there in 2024, underpins Flippo’s position after he secured the GOP nomination in June with Trump’s backing. Recent polling averages and forecasts show a narrower gap than historical precedent, with some surveys placing the contest within a few points or even favoring Benitez-Thompson. This tightening stems from questions about Flippo’s military record and recent arrival in the district, prompting Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee support for his opponent and Republican super PAC advertising. An Independent American candidate drawing double-digit support in one survey further fragments the electorate ahead of November 3.