Google's ongoing delays with its frontier Gemini 3.5 Pro model explain the heavy 83% market weighting toward no release by September 30. Announced at I/O 2026 for a June rollout and later slipped to July, the Pro variant remains in partner testing without a confirmed timeline, while Google has instead shipped multiple Flash iterations—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—with strong results on coding and reasoning benchmarks. Pre-training on the next-generation Gemini 4 has already begun, and historical patterns show Pro releases often lag announced windows due to capability refinements. Traders appear to view the current cadence of incremental Flash updates and internal focus on larger models as evidence against a near-term Pro launch.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by September 30 83%
September 30 4.0%
September 23 3.9%
September 24 3.8%
$93,374 Wol.
$93,374 Wol.
Sep 14, 2026
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
2%
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
3%
September 23
4%
September 24
4%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
3%
September 29
2%
September 30
4%
No release by September 30
83%
No release by September 30 83%
September 30 4.0%
September 23 3.9%
September 24 3.8%
$93,374 Wol.
$93,374 Wol.
Sep 14, 2026
September 14
$409 Wol.
<1%
September 15
$547 Wol.
2%
September 16
$543 Wol.
2%
September 17
$547 Wol.
2%
September 18
$310 Wol.
<1%
September 19
$307 Wol.
1%
September 20
$307 Wol.
1%
September 21
$537 Wol.
2%
September 22
$584 Wol.
3%
September 23
$464 Wol.
4%
September 24
$594 Wol.
4%
September 25
$303 Wol.
1%
September 26
$305 Wol.
1%
September 27
$307 Wol.
1%
September 28
$485 Wol.
3%
September 29
$375 Wol.
2%
September 30
$840 Wol.
4%
No release by September 30
$78,622 Wol.
83%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's ongoing delays with its frontier Gemini 3.5 Pro model explain the heavy 83% market weighting toward no release by September 30. Announced at I/O 2026 for a June rollout and later slipped to July, the Pro variant remains in partner testing without a confirmed timeline, while Google has instead shipped multiple Flash iterations—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—with strong results on coding and reasoning benchmarks. Pre-training on the next-generation Gemini 4 has already begun, and historical patterns show Pro releases often lag announced windows due to capability refinements. Traders appear to view the current cadence of incremental Flash updates and internal focus on larger models as evidence against a near-term Pro launch.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Wolumen
$93,374Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's ongoing delays with its frontier Gemini 3.5 Pro model explain the heavy 83% market weighting toward no release by September 30. Announced at I/O 2026 for a June rollout and later slipped to July, the Pro variant remains in partner testing without a confirmed timeline, while Google has instead shipped multiple Flash iterations—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—with strong results on coding and reasoning benchmarks. Pre-training on the next-generation Gemini 4 has already begun, and historical patterns show Pro releases often lag announced windows due to capability refinements. Traders appear to view the current cadence of incremental Flash updates and internal focus on larger models as evidence against a near-term Pro launch.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$93,374Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Google's ongoing delays with its frontier Gemini 3.5 Pro model explain the heavy 83% market weighting toward no release by September 30. Announced at I/O 2026 for a June rollout and later slipped to July, the Pro variant remains in partner testing without a confirmed timeline, while Google has instead shipped multiple Flash iterations—including Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2—with strong results on coding and reasoning benchmarks. Pre-training on the next-generation Gemini 4 has already begun, and historical patterns show Pro releases often lag announced windows due to capability refinements. Traders appear to view the current cadence of incremental Flash updates and internal focus on larger models as evidence against a near-term Pro launch.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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