Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 2026 dot plot projecting 2.4% real GDP expansion alongside stable unemployment at 4.4% end-year, corroborated by Deloitte and S&P Global forecasts of 2.2% growth. Resilient March payroll gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate underscore labor market strength, while core PCE inflation trends toward the Fed's 2% target despite elevated oil prices. Q4 2025 GDP revised to a still-positive 0.5% annualized rate reinforces soft-landing expectations. Realistic challenges include sharper consumer spending slowdowns from persistent high energy costs or tariff impacts, potentially pushing unemployment above 4.6% as Goldman Sachs models in its 30% recession scenario; watch the imminent Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate due late April.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$21,297 Wol.
$21,297 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
$21,297 Wol.
$21,297 Wol.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 2026 dot plot projecting 2.4% real GDP expansion alongside stable unemployment at 4.4% end-year, corroborated by Deloitte and S&P Global forecasts of 2.2% growth. Resilient March payroll gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate underscore labor market strength, while core PCE inflation trends toward the Fed's 2% target despite elevated oil prices. Q4 2025 GDP revised to a still-positive 0.5% annualized rate reinforces soft-landing expectations. Realistic challenges include sharper consumer spending slowdowns from persistent high energy costs or tariff impacts, potentially pushing unemployment above 4.6% as Goldman Sachs models in its 30% recession scenario; watch the imminent Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate due late April.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,297Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 2026 dot plot projecting 2.4% real GDP expansion alongside stable unemployment at 4.4% end-year, corroborated by Deloitte and S&P Global forecasts of 2.2% growth. Resilient March payroll gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate underscore labor market strength, while core PCE inflation trends toward the Fed's 2% target despite elevated oil prices. Q4 2025 GDP revised to a still-positive 0.5% annualized rate reinforces soft-landing expectations. Realistic challenges include sharper consumer spending slowdowns from persistent high energy costs or tariff impacts, potentially pushing unemployment above 4.6% as Goldman Sachs models in its 30% recession scenario; watch the imminent Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate due late April.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Wolumen
$21,297Data zakończenia
Jan 29, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93.5% implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 2026 dot plot projecting 2.4% real GDP expansion alongside stable unemployment at 4.4% end-year, corroborated by Deloitte and S&P Global forecasts of 2.2% growth. Resilient March payroll gains and a 4.3% unemployment rate underscore labor market strength, while core PCE inflation trends toward the Fed's 2% target despite elevated oil prices. Q4 2025 GDP revised to a still-positive 0.5% annualized rate reinforces soft-landing expectations. Realistic challenges include sharper consumer spending slowdowns from persistent high energy costs or tariff impacts, potentially pushing unemployment above 4.6% as Goldman Sachs models in its 30% recession scenario; watch the imminent Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate due late April.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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