United Russia holds a commanding lead in the Moscow Oblast Duma election market at 97% implied probability because it enters the September 18–20 vote as the long-dominant ruling party with 36 of 50 seats from the prior term, strong incumbency advantages under the parallel voting system of 25 proportional-representation seats and 25 single-member districts, and consistent top positioning on ballots across Russian regions. Fragmented opposition parties face high barriers from registration thresholds, limited resources, and the mixed electoral rules that reward established organizations. The contest occurs alongside national legislative voting, reinforcing the same structural dynamics. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes before polls close include coordinated opposition gains in key districts, unusually high turnout favoring smaller lists, or late administrative or legal developments affecting candidate eligibility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUnited Russia 96.8%
New People 1.4%
Rodina 1.0%
Communists of Russia <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
United Russia
97%
New People
1%
Rodina
1%
Communists of Russia
1%
The Greens
1%
A Just Russia
1%
Party of Pensioners
<1%
CPRF
<1%
LDPR
<1%
Yabloko
<1%
United Russia 96.8%
New People 1.4%
Rodina 1.0%
Communists of Russia <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
United Russia
$1,343 Wol.
97%
New People
$869 Wol.
1%
Rodina
$347 Wol.
1%
Communists of Russia
$284 Wol.
1%
The Greens
$352 Wol.
1%
A Just Russia
$604 Wol.
1%
Party of Pensioners
$592 Wol.
<1%
CPRF
$347 Wol.
<1%
LDPR
$352 Wol.
<1%
Yabloko
$362 Wol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.United Russia holds a commanding lead in the Moscow Oblast Duma election market at 97% implied probability because it enters the September 18–20 vote as the long-dominant ruling party with 36 of 50 seats from the prior term, strong incumbency advantages under the parallel voting system of 25 proportional-representation seats and 25 single-member districts, and consistent top positioning on ballots across Russian regions. Fragmented opposition parties face high barriers from registration thresholds, limited resources, and the mixed electoral rules that reward established organizations. The contest occurs alongside national legislative voting, reinforcing the same structural dynamics. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes before polls close include coordinated opposition gains in key districts, unusually high turnout favoring smaller lists, or late administrative or legal developments affecting candidate eligibility.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 28, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,455Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 12:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.United Russia holds a commanding lead in the Moscow Oblast Duma election market at 97% implied probability because it enters the September 18–20 vote as the long-dominant ruling party with 36 of 50 seats from the prior term, strong incumbency advantages under the parallel voting system of 25 proportional-representation seats and 25 single-member districts, and consistent top positioning on ballots across Russian regions. Fragmented opposition parties face high barriers from registration thresholds, limited resources, and the mixed electoral rules that reward established organizations. The contest occurs alongside national legislative voting, reinforcing the same structural dynamics. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes before polls close include coordinated opposition gains in key districts, unusually high turnout favoring smaller lists, or late administrative or legal developments affecting candidate eligibility.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
Wolumen
$5,455Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 12:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...United Russia holds a commanding lead in the Moscow Oblast Duma election market at 97% implied probability because it enters the September 18–20 vote as the long-dominant ruling party with 36 of 50 seats from the prior term, strong incumbency advantages under the parallel voting system of 25 proportional-representation seats and 25 single-member districts, and consistent top positioning on ballots across Russian regions. Fragmented opposition parties face high barriers from registration thresholds, limited resources, and the mixed electoral rules that reward established organizations. The contest occurs alongside national legislative voting, reinforcing the same structural dynamics. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes before polls close include coordinated opposition gains in key districts, unusually high turnout favoring smaller lists, or late administrative or legal developments affecting candidate eligibility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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