Don Mattingly leads the market at 27.6% after guiding the Phillies from a 9-19 start to a 79-55 finish and NL Wild Card berth following Rob Thomson’s April dismissal. His strong in-season turnaround, player support from stars like J.T. Realmuto, and existing bench-coach contract through 2027 position him as the simplest internal option. Alex Cora’s second refusal of the job, citing family reasons, removed the top external target and left a fragmented field. Brad Ausmus and Rocco Baldelli sit at 15.1% and 12.7% on the strength of prior managerial experience and recent front-office roles, while the late-December CBA expiration and potential lockout complicate any broader external search.