Frank Scarpitti’s long incumbency since 2006 and repeated re-elections, including a strong 2022 result, underpin the 90.8% trader consensus in the Markham mayoral market. Nominations closed in late August 2026 with only two challengers—Martin Ross, focused on prior personal disputes with city hall over a backyard rink, and Stephen Edgell—producing a limited field for the October 16–26 vote. This structure, combined with Scarpitti’s established visibility on regional transit and local development files, has kept the implied probability stable. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unexpected turnout shifts among specific wards or last-minute campaign developments before election day, though historical patterns in Markham municipal contests favor continuity for the sitting mayor.