Moonshot AI's recent launch of the Kimi K2.6 coding model preview on April 18 has anchored trader consensus against an imminent Kimi K3 release, pricing April 30 at just 7% implied probability while favoring June 30 at around 50% on Polymarket. This incremental upgrade to the K2 series—excelling in agentic coding and available via API—signals ongoing refinement rather than a full generational leap, despite $500 million in January funding earmarked for K3 development amid China's fierce AI race with rivals like DeepSeek and GLM. No official K3 benchmarks or timelines have emerged, with historical patterns showing Moonshot's rapid but unpredictable iteration; traders eye upcoming K2.6 evaluations and potential GTC keynotes as catalysts that could shift odds before quarter-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKimi K3 released by…?
Kimi K3 released by…?
$26,452 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
April 30
7%
June 30
52%
$26,452 Wol.
April 30
$24,938 Wol.
7%
June 30
$1,514 Wol.
52%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's recent launch of the Kimi K2.6 coding model preview on April 18 has anchored trader consensus against an imminent Kimi K3 release, pricing April 30 at just 7% implied probability while favoring June 30 at around 50% on Polymarket. This incremental upgrade to the K2 series—excelling in agentic coding and available via API—signals ongoing refinement rather than a full generational leap, despite $500 million in January funding earmarked for K3 development amid China's fierce AI race with rivals like DeepSeek and GLM. No official K3 benchmarks or timelines have emerged, with historical patterns showing Moonshot's rapid but unpredictable iteration; traders eye upcoming K2.6 evaluations and potential GTC keynotes as catalysts that could shift odds before quarter-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$26,452Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's recent launch of the Kimi K2.6 coding model preview on April 18 has anchored trader consensus against an imminent Kimi K3 release, pricing April 30 at just 7% implied probability while favoring June 30 at around 50% on Polymarket. This incremental upgrade to the K2 series—excelling in agentic coding and available via API—signals ongoing refinement rather than a full generational leap, despite $500 million in January funding earmarked for K3 development amid China's fierce AI race with rivals like DeepSeek and GLM. No official K3 benchmarks or timelines have emerged, with historical patterns showing Moonshot's rapid but unpredictable iteration; traders eye upcoming K2.6 evaluations and potential GTC keynotes as catalysts that could shift odds before quarter-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$26,452Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's recent launch of the Kimi K2.6 coding model preview on April 18 has anchored trader consensus against an imminent Kimi K3 release, pricing April 30 at just 7% implied probability while favoring June 30 at around 50% on Polymarket. This incremental upgrade to the K2 series—excelling in agentic coding and available via API—signals ongoing refinement rather than a full generational leap, despite $500 million in January funding earmarked for K3 development amid China's fierce AI race with rivals like DeepSeek and GLM. No official K3 benchmarks or timelines have emerged, with historical patterns showing Moonshot's rapid but unpredictable iteration; traders eye upcoming K2.6 evaluations and potential GTC keynotes as catalysts that could shift odds before quarter-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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