Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKhamenei # posts July 14 - July 21, 2026?
Khamenei # posts July 14 - July 21, 2026?
5-9 100.0%
<5 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$20,312 Wol.
$20,312 Wol.
Jul 21, 2026
<5
No
5-9
Yes
10-14
No
15-19
No
20-24
No
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
No
40-44
No
45-49
No
50-54
No
55-59
No
60+
No
5-9 100.0%
<5 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$20,312 Wol.
$20,312 Wol.
Jul 21, 2026
<5
$5,915 Wol.
No
5-9
$3,401 Wol.
Yes
10-14
$1,869 Wol.
No
15-19
$1,355 Wol.
No
20-24
$921 Wol.
No
25-29
$1,215 Wol.
No
30-34
$1,971 Wol.
No
35-39
$691 Wol.
No
40-44
$373 Wol.
No
45-49
$762 Wol.
No
50-54
$687 Wol.
No
55-59
$710 Wol.
No
60+
$442 Wol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Wolumen
$20,312Data zakończenia
Jul 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Wolumen
$20,312Data zakończenia
Jul 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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