Adilet’s commanding position reflects its June 2026 merger with the former ruling Amanat party, which previously secured a parliamentary majority, combined with leadership ties to the presidential administration and alignment with President Tokayev’s reform agenda. The upcoming August 23 Kurultai vote under the new unicameral, party-list system follows a constitutional referendum that restructured the legislature, and seven registered parties are contesting seats in a single nationwide constituency. Trader consensus on Adilet’s dominance stems from its institutional resources, broad pro-presidential support, and the limited recent polling or campaign momentum shown by smaller parties such as Auyl, Respublica, Aq Jol, and others. A realistic challenge would require late developments including major scandals, significant shifts in voter mobilization, or unforeseen legal barriers to list registration.