Ongoing deadlock in the June 2026 US-brokered trilateral framework agreement continues to shape probabilities, as Israel conditions further withdrawals on Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of southern zones while Hezbollah and Lebanese officials insist on Israeli pullback first. Israeli forces maintain a security buffer inside Lebanon amid October airstrikes and operations against Hezbollah infrastructure, including the Ali al-Taher ridge. Recent diplomatic efforts, including Lebanese Prime Minister meetings with US officials and postponed Rome talks, have produced limited progress on sequencing or enforcement. Hezbollah retains reduced but operational capabilities, with incidents involving UNIFIL highlighting fragile conditions on the ground. Upcoming negotiation rounds and any verifiable halt in cross-border strikes could influence assessments of when a sustained two-week pause might take hold.