**Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by retired IDF brigadier general Ofer Winter, faces consistent polling shortfalls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election.** Launched in late August 2026, the party has hovered near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold (roughly four seats) in surveys from Channel 12, Walla/Lazar, Kan, and others throughout September and October. Recent results place it at 1.5–2.8%, with multiple polls showing it failing to qualify while rival right-wing lists such as the Religious Zionist–Zehut alliance and the Reservists-Economic Party clear the bar. **Trader pricing for fewer than four seats at 62.5% aligns with this trend of weak and declining support.** Factors include vote fragmentation on the right, competition from established parties, and public pressure on small lists—including calls from Prime Minister Netanyahu and Bezalal Smotrich for Amcha Yisrael to withdraw to avoid wasting votes. A high-profile list defection in mid-October underscored these concerns. A handful of polls have shown it scraping four seats when support firms, supporting the secondary 4–6 outcome at 32.5%, though outcomes of seven or more remain distant given the current trajectory. The narrow window to election day leaves limited time for shifts in undecided voters or turnout patterns.