**Iranian officials have repeatedly conditioned any full reopening or lifting of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz on U.S. fulfillment of broader commitments under the June Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, including sanctions relief, asset releases, and an end to the naval blockade on Iranian ports.** Talks with Oman have advanced on a framework for a temporary or new transit corridor and joint arrangements, with recent statements from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and others describing progress or near-final details on routes and maps. However, Tehran has explicitly stated that these bilateral understandings define potential future lanes but do not equate to reopening the strait or ending its current restrictions, which remain in place amid severely limited commercial traffic. U.S. enforcement actions continue, and no recent developments indicate the blockade will be lifted absent those U.S. steps. This sequencing—Oman framework preceding any blockade relief—aligns with the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% probability on “No.”