The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.2% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, who secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s large Latino population centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs. With the general election set for November 3, a sustained national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal involving the nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout remain the principal factors that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are rare in this environment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$51,474 Wol.
$51,474 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$51,474 Wol.
$51,474 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$36,829 Wol.
95%
Republican Party
$14,645 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.2% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, who secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s large Latino population centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs. With the general election set for November 3, a sustained national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal involving the nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout remain the principal factors that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are rare in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$51,474Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.2% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, who secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s large Latino population centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs. With the general election set for November 3, a sustained national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal involving the nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout remain the principal factors that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are rare in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$51,474Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.2% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, who secured the Democratic nomination without primary opposition in March 2026. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district’s large Latino population centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs. With the general election set for November 3, a sustained national Republican surge, an unforeseen scandal involving the nominee, or unusually low Democratic turnout remain the principal factors that could narrow the margin, though historical patterns indicate such shifts are rare in this environment.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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