**Elevated 2026 tornado activity through midsummer, driven by a persistent jet stream pattern favoring the Midwest, underpins the market's strong preference for 1,250+ reports.** Preliminary NOAA/Storm Prediction Center data show roughly 940–1,104 tornado reports by late July, with Illinois alone recording over 200 (far above its typical share) amid record-warm April and spring temperatures that enhanced moisture and instability. Multiple outbreaks, including a major April event with 304 preliminary reports and additional activity in May–June, have already exceeded historical pacing for the first seven months. Climatologically, annual U.S. totals average near 1,000–1,200; the current elevated baseline plus remaining summer/fall potential—modulated by steering patterns, Gulf moisture, and any late-season severe episodes—makes totals above 1,250 the dominant outcome. Traders appear to weigh confirmed preliminary counts and the observed eastward shift of favorable severe-weather ingredients more heavily than longer-term ENSO transitions, producing the 86.5% implied probability on 1,250+. New monthly SPC updates and any August–September outbreaks remain the primary near-term variables.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 87%
1200–1249 6.8%
1150–1199 6.3%
1100–1149 4.2%
$81,648 Wol.
$81,648 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
7%
1250+
87%
1250+ 87%
1200–1249 6.8%
1150–1199 6.3%
1100–1149 4.2%
$81,648 Wol.
$81,648 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 Wol.
1%
950–999
$3,618 Wol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Wol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Wol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Wol.
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 Wol.
6%
1200–1249
$15,917 Wol.
7%
1250+
$18,440 Wol.
87%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated 2026 tornado activity through midsummer, driven by a persistent jet stream pattern favoring the Midwest, underpins the market's strong preference for 1,250+ reports.** Preliminary NOAA/Storm Prediction Center data show roughly 940–1,104 tornado reports by late July, with Illinois alone recording over 200 (far above its typical share) amid record-warm April and spring temperatures that enhanced moisture and instability. Multiple outbreaks, including a major April event with 304 preliminary reports and additional activity in May–June, have already exceeded historical pacing for the first seven months.
Climatologically, annual U.S. totals average near 1,000–1,200; the current elevated baseline plus remaining summer/fall potential—modulated by steering patterns, Gulf moisture, and any late-season severe episodes—makes totals above 1,250 the dominant outcome. Traders appear to weigh confirmed preliminary counts and the observed eastward shift of favorable severe-weather ingredients more heavily than longer-term ENSO transitions, producing the 86.5% implied probability on 1,250+. New monthly SPC updates and any August–September outbreaks remain the primary near-term variables.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Wolumen
$81,648Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Elevated 2026 tornado activity through midsummer, driven by a persistent jet stream pattern favoring the Midwest, underpins the market's strong preference for 1,250+ reports.** Preliminary NOAA/Storm Prediction Center data show roughly 940–1,104 tornado reports by late July, with Illinois alone recording over 200 (far above its typical share) amid record-warm April and spring temperatures that enhanced moisture and instability. Multiple outbreaks, including a major April event with 304 preliminary reports and additional activity in May–June, have already exceeded historical pacing for the first seven months.
Climatologically, annual U.S. totals average near 1,000–1,200; the current elevated baseline plus remaining summer/fall potential—modulated by steering patterns, Gulf moisture, and any late-season severe episodes—makes totals above 1,250 the dominant outcome. Traders appear to weigh confirmed preliminary counts and the observed eastward shift of favorable severe-weather ingredients more heavily than longer-term ENSO transitions, producing the 86.5% implied probability on 1,250+. New monthly SPC updates and any August–September outbreaks remain the primary near-term variables.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Wolumen
$81,648Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated 2026 tornado activity through midsummer, driven by a persistent jet stream pattern favoring the Midwest, underpins the market's strong preference for 1,250+ reports.** Preliminary NOAA/Storm Prediction Center data show roughly 940–1,104 tornado reports by late July, with Illinois alone recording over 200 (far above its typical share) amid record-warm April and spring temperatures that enhanced moisture and instability. Multiple outbreaks, including a major April event with 304 preliminary reports and additional activity in May–June, have already exceeded historical pacing for the first seven months. Climatologically, annual U.S. totals average near 1,000–1,200; the current elevated baseline plus remaining summer/fall potential—modulated by steering patterns, Gulf moisture, and any late-season severe episodes—makes totals above 1,250 the dominant outcome. Traders appear to weigh confirmed preliminary counts and the observed eastward shift of favorable severe-weather ingredients more heavily than longer-term ENSO transitions, producing the 86.5% implied probability on 1,250+. New monthly SPC updates and any August–September outbreaks remain the primary near-term variables.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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