North Carolina’s congressional map, redrawn by Republicans in October 2025, shifted District 1 several points rightward to target Democratic incumbent Don Davis while leaving the other three Democratic seats largely intact, producing a 10-4 baseline. Recent generic ballot polling showing an 8-point Democratic edge nationally has prompted forecasters to upgrade NC-1 and the open or competitive NC-11 to toss-up or lean-Democratic status, raising the prospect of one or two net gains. Legal challenges to the map remain unresolved, candidate fundraising and recruitment in swing districts continue, and the broader midterm environment could still shift turnout or produce late surprises. These cross-pressures—structural Republican advantages offset by Democratic momentum—keep trader probabilities clustered tightly around four to six seats.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano5 33%
6+ 24.1%
4 23%
3 15%
$11,651 Wol.
$11,651 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
1%
3
15%
4
23%
5
33%
6+
24%
5 33%
6+ 24.1%
4 23%
3 15%
$11,651 Wol.
$11,651 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
$837 Wol.
1%
3
$2,020 Wol.
15%
4
$2,412 Wol.
23%
5
$4,838 Wol.
33%
6+
$1,545 Wol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.North Carolina’s congressional map, redrawn by Republicans in October 2025, shifted District 1 several points rightward to target Democratic incumbent Don Davis while leaving the other three Democratic seats largely intact, producing a 10-4 baseline. Recent generic ballot polling showing an 8-point Democratic edge nationally has prompted forecasters to upgrade NC-1 and the open or competitive NC-11 to toss-up or lean-Democratic status, raising the prospect of one or two net gains. Legal challenges to the map remain unresolved, candidate fundraising and recruitment in swing districts continue, and the broader midterm environment could still shift turnout or produce late surprises. These cross-pressures—structural Republican advantages offset by Democratic momentum—keep trader probabilities clustered tightly around four to six seats.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Wolumen
$11,651Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.North Carolina’s congressional map, redrawn by Republicans in October 2025, shifted District 1 several points rightward to target Democratic incumbent Don Davis while leaving the other three Democratic seats largely intact, producing a 10-4 baseline. Recent generic ballot polling showing an 8-point Democratic edge nationally has prompted forecasters to upgrade NC-1 and the open or competitive NC-11 to toss-up or lean-Democratic status, raising the prospect of one or two net gains. Legal challenges to the map remain unresolved, candidate fundraising and recruitment in swing districts continue, and the broader midterm environment could still shift turnout or produce late surprises. These cross-pressures—structural Republican advantages offset by Democratic momentum—keep trader probabilities clustered tightly around four to six seats.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$11,651Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...North Carolina’s congressional map, redrawn by Republicans in October 2025, shifted District 1 several points rightward to target Democratic incumbent Don Davis while leaving the other three Democratic seats largely intact, producing a 10-4 baseline. Recent generic ballot polling showing an 8-point Democratic edge nationally has prompted forecasters to upgrade NC-1 and the open or competitive NC-11 to toss-up or lean-Democratic status, raising the prospect of one or two net gains. Legal challenges to the map remain unresolved, candidate fundraising and recruitment in swing districts continue, and the broader midterm environment could still shift turnout or produce late surprises. These cross-pressures—structural Republican advantages offset by Democratic momentum—keep trader probabilities clustered tightly around four to six seats.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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