**Arizona's nine congressional districts include three seats rated safe or solid for Democrats and four safe for Republicans, leaving AZ-1 (open after the incumbent's retirement) and AZ-6 as the main battlegrounds.** Nonpartisan forecasters rate both as toss-ups or lean Democratic, reflecting tight 2024 margins, shifting suburban demographics in the Phoenix and Tucson areas, strong Democratic fundraising and candidate recruitment, and a national midterm environment that has favored the opposition party in recent cycles. Traders price 5 Democratic seats highest because a net gain of two in these districts aligns with current polling averages and race ratings, while outcomes of 4 or 6 remain plausible depending on turnout patterns, late advertising, and any shifts in the broader political climate before November 3. Lower probabilities for 3 or 7+ seats track the limited number of truly competitive districts and historical performance in Arizona's map.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano5 60%
4 16.2%
6 16%
3 6.5%
$16,098 Wol.
$16,098 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
<1%
3
7%
4
16%
5
60%
6
16%
7+
3%
5 60%
4 16.2%
6 16%
3 6.5%
$16,098 Wol.
$16,098 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
$982 Wol.
<1%
3
$6,115 Wol.
7%
4
$2,458 Wol.
16%
5
$4,189 Wol.
60%
6
$1,531 Wol.
16%
7+
$823 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Arizona's nine congressional districts include three seats rated safe or solid for Democrats and four safe for Republicans, leaving AZ-1 (open after the incumbent's retirement) and AZ-6 as the main battlegrounds.** Nonpartisan forecasters rate both as toss-ups or lean Democratic, reflecting tight 2024 margins, shifting suburban demographics in the Phoenix and Tucson areas, strong Democratic fundraising and candidate recruitment, and a national midterm environment that has favored the opposition party in recent cycles. Traders price 5 Democratic seats highest because a net gain of two in these districts aligns with current polling averages and race ratings, while outcomes of 4 or 6 remain plausible depending on turnout patterns, late advertising, and any shifts in the broader political climate before November 3. Lower probabilities for 3 or 7+ seats track the limited number of truly competitive districts and historical performance in Arizona's map.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
Wolumen
$16,098Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Arizona's nine congressional districts include three seats rated safe or solid for Democrats and four safe for Republicans, leaving AZ-1 (open after the incumbent's retirement) and AZ-6 as the main battlegrounds.** Nonpartisan forecasters rate both as toss-ups or lean Democratic, reflecting tight 2024 margins, shifting suburban demographics in the Phoenix and Tucson areas, strong Democratic fundraising and candidate recruitment, and a national midterm environment that has favored the opposition party in recent cycles. Traders price 5 Democratic seats highest because a net gain of two in these districts aligns with current polling averages and race ratings, while outcomes of 4 or 6 remain plausible depending on turnout patterns, late advertising, and any shifts in the broader political climate before November 3. Lower probabilities for 3 or 7+ seats track the limited number of truly competitive districts and historical performance in Arizona's map.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$16,098Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Arizona's nine congressional districts include three seats rated safe or solid for Democrats and four safe for Republicans, leaving AZ-1 (open after the incumbent's retirement) and AZ-6 as the main battlegrounds.** Nonpartisan forecasters rate both as toss-ups or lean Democratic, reflecting tight 2024 margins, shifting suburban demographics in the Phoenix and Tucson areas, strong Democratic fundraising and candidate recruitment, and a national midterm environment that has favored the opposition party in recent cycles. Traders price 5 Democratic seats highest because a net gain of two in these districts aligns with current polling averages and race ratings, while outcomes of 4 or 6 remain plausible depending on turnout patterns, late advertising, and any shifts in the broader political climate before November 3. Lower probabilities for 3 or 7+ seats track the limited number of truly competitive districts and historical performance in Arizona's map.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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