The surge in the 5-year Treasury yield to a September high above 5.10% and a closing level of 5.06% on September 29 reflects strong U.S. growth data and shifting monetary policy expectations. September's flash composite PMI of 58.4, the highest since 2021, alongside persistent inflation signals and oil price pressures, prompted traders to price in additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, with the effective funds rate near 3.88%. This drove real yields higher while breakevens remained elevated, pushing the 5-year constant maturity yield up roughly 58 basis points from late August amid expectations for tighter policy into year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include October FOMC communications and labor market releases that could alter the implied rate path.