Escalating military operations in Yemen's western coast and around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait continue to shape trader sentiment on the timeline for Houthi forces reaching Aden. Saudi-backed government forces launched Operation Dawn of Yemen in early October, claiming thousands of strikes and territorial recoveries that have slowed Houthi advances toward the Gulf of Aden supply routes. This follows Houthi gains in September that briefly threatened coastal access and prompted attacks on Aden airport and Saudi targets. Financial markets price in risks to Red Sea shipping volumes, Saudi oil export logistics via alternative routes amid Strait of Hormuz constraints, and elevated tanker insurance premiums. Key near-term catalysts include verified battlefield reports from Taiz and Bab al-Mandeb, Saudi coalition air activity, and any shifts in Iranian support levels that could alter the pace of ground movements.