Trader consensus on a 36°C high for Madrid on September 8 reflects official station observations confirming that peak temperature, consistent with recent model guidance showing clear skies, light northeasterly flow, and daytime heating under a stable high-pressure pattern. This aligns with early September climatology where Madrid often sees maxima 5–7°C above the 28°C seasonal average during dry spells. Minor probabilities on adjacent thresholds account for potential final verification adjustments by AEMET or differences between reporting stations, though updated surface data have narrowed uncertainty. No further model runs or observations are expected to alter the outcome before market resolution.